Massively OP’s Best of 2015 Awards: Most Likely to Flop

Massively OP’s end-of-the-year awards continue today with our most likely to flop in 2016 and beyond award.

Last year, Star Citizen took home this dishonor, leading to much discord in the comments. Star Citizen has yet to actually fully launch let alone flop, though, which is why we tack on the “and beyond.” We also note that “flop” can mean lots of things, from outright sunset to financial ruin to simply not living up to insane hype. And we don’t want anything to flop!

Don’t forget to cast your own vote in the just-for-fun reader poll at the very end.

The Massively OP staff pick for Most Likely to Flop in 2016 and Beyond is…

Blade & Soul

likelytoflop

Brendan Drain (@nyphur): Oculus Rift/EVE: Valkyrie. Every time I’m at an event where EVE Valkyrie is being played, the reactions are always amazing. People clearly love the game and it gets better every time I play it, but its success hinges on sales of the Oculus Rift, and I don’t think that’s a big enough market. I’ve spoken to plenty of people who say they love EVE Online’s ships and art style and would absolutely kill for an EVE dogfighter like Valkyrie, but they aren’t going to buy an expensive headset to play it. Part of the failure of DUST 514 was attributed to it being locked to a single console and unable to reach the majority of its potential market, and I suspect the same may be true of Valkyrie unless a non-VR version is released.

Brianna Royce (@nbrianna, blog): I’m afraid Blade & Soul isn’t going to do nearly as well as it might have here a few years ago. I feel bad for saying it, but it just took way too long to port westward, and that, coupled with general western snobbery toward Asian imports, is going to make it a hard sell, particularly in a subgenre already dominated here by TERA.

Eliot Lefebvre (@Eliot_Lefebvre, blog): Star Citizen. Yeah, this one still gets my nod. It’s not something I’m exactly happy to be expecting, but at its heart the reason is the same this year as it was last year – too much expectation and hype for any game to live up to the price tag. It’s not going to be bad, mind you; it’s going to be decent. But it’s long since passed the point where “decent” could cut the mustard.

Jef Reahard (@jefreahard): It pains me to predict this because I was greatly looking forward to Black Desert at one point, but now I see it flopping pretty hard in the west. When you combine the action combat with the PvP focus, the removal of sandbox elements, and what is likely to be an ArcheAge-style buttfunk of the player economy courtesy of a cash shop, you’ve got a recipe for failure.

Justin Olivetti (@Sypster, blog): The indie City of Heroes spin-offs. Hey guys, I know you miss City of Heroes deeply, but whatever “spiritual successor” you’re trying to make is almost certainly going to be a pale shadow of the real thing and destined to be forgotten quickly after launch — if indeed it makes it there. Sorry, but tough love and all that! Also Life is Feudal. You named your game “Life is Feudal.” That does not bode well for anything you do past that.

Larry Everett (@Shaddoe, blog): I hate to answer this question, but the biggest flop that I foresee in the future is going to be Blade and Soul, and it’s not going to flop because it’s a bad game. It will just not even come close to matching the anticipation nor the hype that NCsoft have for the game. It’s really pretty, but it’s it’s now heavily dated and will not reach the level of its Asian popularity.

Matt Daniel (@Matt_DanielMVOP): After my experience with it, I’m gonna hafta say WildStar. Sorry, but I really don’t think the F2P transition is gonna be enough to save it at this point. Back when it originally launched, I enjoyed it well enough but many of the game’s underlying systems needed either a bit of retooling or outright revamping, and it doesn’t seem that the devs have done much besides added a fresh layer of paint and some new bells and whistles to distract attention from the bigger, more deeply rooted issues.

MJ Guthrie (@MJ_Guthrie, blog): Is Cabal 2 still a thing? That is literally the only game I couldn’t get enthused about something when playing. I didn’t even think such a thing was possible!

Tina Lauro (@purpletinabeans): I’ll say Blade and Soul, but only because I think you’ll see players drop away because of the unusual combat system and theme. I don’t know if every MMO player will really get it, and I don’t know whether it’ll have enough sticking power in the NA and EU market because it’s just so different.

Blade & Soul was our pick for Most Likely to Flop in 2016 and Beyond. What’s your pick?

What MMO is most likely to flop in 2016 and beyond?

  • Blade & Soul (18%, 284 Votes)
  • EVE Valkyrie (9%, 147 Votes)
  • Star Citizen (22%, 351 Votes)
  • Black Desert (19%, 294 Votes)
  • City of Heroes spinoffs (9%, 140 Votes)
  • WildStar (15%, 240 Votes)
  • Cabal 2 (3%, 53 Votes)
  • Something else -- tell us in the comments. (4%, 56 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,565

Loading ... Loading ...
ALL OUR 2015 AWARDS (SO FAR)
SHARE THIS ARTICLE
Code of Conduct | Edit Your Profile | Commenting FAQ | Badge Reclamation | Badge Key

LEAVE A COMMENT

400 Comments on "Massively OP’s Best of 2015 Awards: Most Likely to Flop"

Subscribe to:
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most liked
mvpeets
Guest
mvpeets

ZenDadaist Not even. At least ArcheAge has a measure of staying power for a small group. B&S, however, is just themepark, and that model tends to lose players fast, especially if it starts visibly losing players. (That sounds weird.)

Rajafa
Guest
Rajafa

DamnDirtyApe GoJammit Screaming “SCAM!” and “IT’LL FAIL!” isn’t criticism. It’s trolling.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Well that’s silly. If I could see it well enough on my screen when they displayed it, I shouldn’t need a bunch of silly gear. Yeah I may have to change my bit to this being a flop. Anytime you make a game that requires a bunch of special hardware, you run the risk of people simply not giving a damn.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Making a pretzel out of that explanation just to make it fit. I’m sure the guys who dropped the bomb on Hiroshima felt like failures when they had to switch targets. Failing to make a fantastic game and only making a decent one does not make it a flop. Goes back to what I was saying about emotion and opinion. You and I not liking it has no bearing whatsoever on if it is a flop. The goal was to make a game that sells well. And if it does it’s not a failure.
Besides if we are going to go with subjective things like good or bad then the only thing that really matters is if Roberts likes it. It said from the beginning he wanted to make the game of HIS dreams, a game that HE wanted to play. So if we are going to go opinions his is the only that matters. Silly right?

ZenDadaist
Guest
ZenDadaist

Blah blah Star Citizen, blah blah WoW: Legion, blah blah CoH successors, blah blah EQN.

Right that’s done with, I reckon the biggest flop in terms of previously hotly-anticipated game finally showing up and interest in it vanishing rapidly: Blade and Soul. It’s too late. Much too late. It’ll be ArcheAge all over again (but perhaps without the exploiting buggy crap part).

Zennie
Guest
Zennie

Occulus and some other VR device.

Dobablo
Guest
Dobablo

GoJammit If a project doesn’t meet all of its targets then it has at least partially failed. The more targets and that are missed, the more people are likely to describe it as being a flop.
If the hype-train promises fantastic but only delivers above average, then at least one major objective has been failed.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Fail how? He’s not describing it as failing. In fact so many that are saying it will flop are describing it not flipping but then saying in the minds of the people who really wanted something more it’s not so great. That’s not a flop.
And what in the hells is that other one you are talking about?

Dobablo
Guest
Dobablo

GoJammit Those aren’t definitions, they are examples provided as clarification. The two definitions of flop that apply (thanks OED) are:
To fail – covers the explanation above.
Deliberately stumble in order to give the appearance of having been fouled by an opponent – Which some people might claim describes Star Citizen.

rioinsignia
Guest
rioinsignia

Vikingr GoJammit Agreed.  And misery loves nothing better than to feel “vindicated” that it was right to feel that way all along.

rioinsignia
Guest
rioinsignia

imperialpanda You won’t get any argument from me on that score.  Whilst there is indeed still a long way to go, I think the launch of SCA 2.0 at least gives people something more tangible than hopes and promises.  Of course, it isn’t the full product by any stretch, but it’s still quite a milestone in itself.   :)

imperialpanda
Guest
imperialpanda

rioinsignia imperialpanda I read the features list. It’s still a long, long way away from an actual game. And really, something of this size doesn’t come together until everything is done. I think anyone buying the game today is still just buying hope. Perhaps not that something will be put out, but certainly to the quality of what eventually will be Star Citizen.
Admittedly, space sim is probably one of the last genres I will play. =P But I haven’t read anything that would suggest Cloud Imperium has a better chance than your average studio of making a good game. And MMOs don’t really have a good success rate.
I’d just like to point out that whenever people buy something before it’s been completed, they are unquestionably buying on hope. Star Citizen is just a noteworthy extreme case of this.

Vikingr
Guest
Vikingr

melissaheather 
I heard that Valkyrie will sell with Oculus Rift included. Is that correct? If so, what’s the price of the retail game going to be?

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Armsbend Lethality LordOfBread *slow clap*

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

schmidtcapela deekay_zero meltedskul Lethality Armsbend LordOfBread Yes This is something I was going to say as well. While yes it is officially DLC, the term DLC has a particular connotation. And I wonder if this is just a US thing, I believe you are European coreect, deekay_zero ? In anycase. People hear DLC and they think map packs, and extra skins or characters, or skins for characters. And for the most part it’s not stuff that you can get unless you buy this DLC. I think Street Fighter is set to break that trend with it’s new game. I don’t really see spending all that crazy money on ships as DLC. Microtrans fits way better for me. The result is the same,I suppose, but microtrans to get a better ship is different from Day 1 dlc or you miss out on part of the game.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Corvus Monedula deekay_zero LordOfBread Cotic_OP What do you mean by rental?

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

deekay_zero LordOfBread Cotic_OP I don’t know, $35 dollars to buy two games is pretty damn friendly to me. No one is forced to buy more.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Tongle So he can’t use his own name in his game? Was it ego to put himself as an extra in his own movie too? Or maybe I’m not seeing what you’re trying to point me to.

Tongle
Guest
Tongle

Google chris roberts industries

And I take it back, I really don’t want SC to fail. 

Just sick of the fanboyism.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

breetoplay Koolthulu So essentially anything you don’t like can make it a flop. Yeah, I’ll go buy something approaching a real definition.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Dobablo Eliot’s not saying anything about the money He’s talking about it not meeting hype. So people going out and spending the money and walking away disastisfied because there weren’t as many explosions as they thought there would be, is not a flop. You want to talk about it not making a profit that is at least something solid and not the anomalous attitudes of movie goers, who much like gamers, don’t know what they want.

rioinsignia
Guest
rioinsignia

imperialpanda In the beginning I think it was definately a lottery.  Selling a “hope”.  And people put a measure of faith that such a *hope* could become a reality if there is enough funding. And so they backed it.  And as time passes, the possibility of playing that “big sandbox MMO with all the features they promised” looks to becoming more of a reality.  Which is why I can understand the scepticism back at the start:  lofty goals and all that.    So yeah, it’s not surprising really.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Polyanna FUlfillment of hype does not define a flop.
Why would they burn as much money maintaining a game as they do building it?
Are we working under the assumption that there will be no more box sales after launch or that there will be no more income in general?
It was never supposed to be WoW. Competition for Eve maybe. What LEgal consequesnces? I think there are a lot of assumptions being made about financials you are not privy to.

imperialpanda
Guest
imperialpanda

Star Citizen is like the lottery. It’s not actually selling a big sandbox space MMO with all the features they’ve promised. It’s selling the *hope* of playing a big sandbox MMO with all the features they’ve promised.
In that sense, it’s not quite as surprising that they’re doing so well with funding.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Tongle What egos? And why would you want something to fail?

Vikingr
Guest
Vikingr

GoJammit 
I think many people believe in the power of a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is – wish something will flop many times, and perhaps it’ll come true.

Vikingr
Guest
Vikingr

GoJammit 
Well, to be honest I haven’t put in much thought to Star Citizen flopping. I mean, a flop is a total failure and a bad game, at least to me, and I simply can’t see Star Citizen in that situation. I’ve known from the beginning that this game will fulfill my dreams, and as it has developed that feeling has only solidified. Chris Roberts is a perfectionist, like me, and I like what he’s making and how he’s doing it. Not that I wouldn’t do some details different here and there but then again it’s his dream I’m following and he’s the expert of making games, not me. I feel it’s in good hands.

What is a flop? I agree with you that’s a subjective definition. People have different expectations and so will say differently what a flop is to them. To me, I guess something is a flop if the customers don’t like it and don’t buy it. That’s also the most objective definition of a flop I know of, so I’ll go with that.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Necromonger You don’t know how fast the money’s going out so how can you say when it will run out. Also the money train keeps a rolling with little drop in rate between he three yearssince the funding started so how do you know when it will dry up?

schmidtcapela
Guest
schmidtcapela

deekay_zero meltedskul Lethality Armsbend LordOfBread 
Technically it isn’t DLC. The content is there for everyone to earn, regardless of having purchasing it or not, and just as important the ones that do purchase it can lose it after their insurance runs out.
It’s more like microtransactions (if that term can even apply to something sold for hundreds of dollars).

schmidtcapela
Guest
schmidtcapela

schlag sweetleaf 
If the intent is to make a splash, we have a winner ;)

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Lethality syberghost SallyBowls1 blaaznar ManastuUtakata I think there is also an assumption that they are living hand to mouth. As though there is a machine they are slowly shoveling money into to keep the lights on. When in reality they ave no idea what the money situation is.

schmidtcapela
Guest
schmidtcapela

rioinsignia GoJammit 
I got it expecting to purchase a kind of Wing Commander Privateer, with modern graphics, for $30 (what I paid back then). I’m fairly sure it will greatly surpass those expectations, so even though it’s very delayed, I’m happy with it. Heck, merely provide the private server for the Alpha currently out there and my initial expectations will already have been surpassed.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

Diskonekted Who says they’ve made most of the money they are going to make? Just because people have bought in already doesn’t mean there will not be more people waiting to buy a game after they see that it comes to fruition. I didn’t buy in to Pillar of Eternity but I got it after launch after getting such good reviews. I missed my chance to help fund either of the RollCage and Wipeout successors, but I for damn sure will be getting those if the reviews are good, maybe regardless. Plenty of people wait until a game actually releases before they buy it. It is funny that this is something that even needs to be aid, but that’s the world we live in. I’m as guilty as the next.
On top of that there will still be people who spend money and buy ingame credits so they can get ships and weapons, bypassing the actual playing of the game. Another blight on society that I think Roberts was smart to get on tops of. After all, why bother with illegal ways to get credits if you can in game, even if there is a limit on it. Then instead of spending resources combating it, you can take that money in and profit or put into the game. Whatever.

NathanielDownes
Guest
NathanielDownes

GoJammit You know, it just struck me that the reason there are three efforts is because two of them came in with pre-existing material and wanted to build around that, while the original was ground-up being built for the task. There is an argument for either approach.

NathanielDownes
Guest
NathanielDownes

Scarecrowe Sazri – depends on what you mean by “playable.” The phrase is “too many cooks in the kitchen” often times.

rioinsignia
Guest
rioinsignia

whitewalker GoJammit Wanna go the whole nine yards and throw a “your momma” or a “you mad bro?” in there too for good measure?
Go on….push the proverbial boat out.   We’ll wait here for you while you do it.

rioinsignia
Guest
rioinsignia

GoJammit  Yep, all to often do people vote and say things based on what they *want* to happen…rather than what logic strongly suggests *will* actually happen.  For the reasons I suggested earlier, it shouldn’t be surprising with the internet crowd today.

Scarecrowe
Guest
Scarecrowe

I enjoyed BnS when I played it and look forward to the launch. Is it anything special? No, maybe not. But I foresee a few months of enjoyment in it. That said, I can’t say that Black Desert interests me too much. Eve Valkyrie not at all. And I just don’t know enough about Cabal 2 to make an opinion. Wildstar is mediocre and my problems with it were due to large raid size rather than anything addressed by a F2P conversion.  Star Citizen has been interesting so far. Will it be the Holy Grail? Doubt it. But I don’t think it’s going to flop either.

Scarecrowe
Guest
Scarecrowe

Sazri
If the efforts for the four (I think there’s four now…) different efforts were all focused on the same project, I think we’d have a better chance at getting something playable.

NathanielDownes
Guest
NathanielDownes

d0ub1ep1u5g00d NathanielDownes GoJammit – And no, I would not use Champions as an example. If I were to use any example, I would use 2010’s APB. Developed by Realtime Worlds, an independent studio from Scotland, APB’s character creation system rivals, and in many ways surpasses, that found in City of Heroes.
Here is my personal favorite video showing off APB, now APB Reloaded:

Cotic_OP
Guest
Cotic_OP

Wild_Phil 
It is if it’s the company fueling the hype or atleast not curtailing it in any form. Just look at the 10ftC episodes, always very purposely vague wording that allows people to see what they want to see as opposed to stating “Yes, we’re doing this.”, “No, we’re not doing that.”.
Clearly they want people talking about the game and whatnot but they can’t just say any and all thoughts are entirely on you.

Sazri
Guest
Sazri

As much as I loved City of Heroes, I agree that the spin-offs feel doomed. I’ve long since moved forward and I’m not even paying attention to the “successors.”

NathanielDownes
Guest
NathanielDownes

Target audience and intended experience. Take fantasy art, you see fancy armor, and in fantasy MMO’s, the armor are drops. There is typically a huge variety in these armor models, rivaling that we find in CoH, but they are added through a different system. Many fantasy MMO’s even allow you to further customize them with colors and such. Just because the customization is not in the costume builder section does not mean it does not exist.

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

NathanielDownes GoJammit Thanks for that info.

d0ub1ep1u5g00d
Guest
d0ub1ep1u5g00d

NathanielDownes GoJammit I think your underestimating it. If it was that trivial why are so many AAA MMO’s being released nowadays with almost little to no character customization options even with their big budgets? No game I know of since CoH has even touched the amount of character customization offered. And we are talking about small budget indie developers here. It may not be difficult but cost is the biggest problem.

NathanielDownes
Guest
NathanielDownes

TheDonDude – Which one?

jeremy2020
Guest
jeremy2020

GoJammit jeremy2020 Yeah, I was the one who misread it.

jeremy2020
Guest
jeremy2020

Armsbend Veldan mysecretid When they announced it, I wasn’t sure where they fit in the market between Path of Exile, Marvel Heroes, and Diablo III. 
Now that I’ve played it for a few hours, I really don’t understand who they think the market for this game is…maybe the “Well, I like arpgs, but the current offerings don’t have enough bounce to my characters boobs.”

GoJammit
Guest
GoJammit

jeremy2020 Was he? I may have misread it. If so I aapologize. Seemed like he was accusing him of hyperbole.

pepinocantador
Guest
pepinocantador

Kind of surprised to not see EverQuest Next on the list, though at this point I’m leaning more towards the game being an abortion than making it to the stage where it can flop.

With the qualification “won’t live up to the hype”, Star Citizen is an easy shoe-in. The majority of the gaming community really only gets news about Star Citizen to the tune of the amount of money it brings in, and there is virtually never any parallel drawn to the budgets of other games, so many are left with the impression that the game has a laundry list of features and an obscene budget… So it must be the greatest game ever made. I know pointing this out is heresy, because the game’s fan base is (in their eyes) the majority opinion on the game, but it will be interesting to see how things pan out in 2016.

wpDiscuz