Wisdom of Nym: Gauging predictions after the Final Fantasy XIV fanfests

It finally happened, folks; we’re done with the fan festivals until next year. (Yes, I fully expect to hear about the next set when we’re getting about halfway through 2018. This is not an unpredictable development team.) We know the big elements of what Final Fantasy XIV will be seeing with its next expansion. So I find myself sitting here and asking, more or less for my own edification, how was my aim?

I made my guesses about what we were going to see, after all. I did them publicly, so everyone could read them. And I think I did pretty well overall. You can read my predictions before the Las Vegas festival and this past weekend’s Frankfurt festival; I didn’t have a specific prediction for Tokyo, although the aftermath gave me the chance for some speculation.

So how did I do? And how cool was what we actually saw? Let’s go over it.

Jobs: About 90% right

Chain that spell, all right.My initial prediction – based on how many jobs we had gotten in Heavensward – did, in fact, contain all of the jobs we eventually got. My second batch of predictions was entirely right insofar as the other new job was Samurai, and as we only got two jobs it was a second DPS rather than a tank. I’m going to go ahead and call this one almost entirely right, with some bonus points for getting the Samurai connection early on.

I actually hadn’t made the Sam Raimi connection when I was first watching, for the record; I just thought that Spider-man could be abbreviated “SM,” which was within spitting distance of the classic SAM abbreviation. It doesn’t really matter, but still.

Of course, this leaves us with a pretty short list of classic jobs for the next expansion that fit the mechanics of the game and have some iconic status… but that’s something to worry about next year. Right now, I’m going to give myself points for not getting distracted by red herrings.

Mechanics: Maybe 30%?

My mechanical speculation was more of a mixed bag. We know that we’re getting a revamp to the battle system, but we also don’t know a great deal about it at this point; mostly what we know is that it’s going to be aimed at shrinking the skill gap between players and that it’s still in development. That probably means more traits, but it’s not a given. It probably also means that there will be new passives.

Still, that wasn’t what we heard about. While some of my predictions brushed up against the right territory, we didn’t hear much about that and this one was, largely, not what we’ve heard about. So it goes into the “mostly wrong” category.

New regions: 100% right, but not 100% of the content

I guessed that we were going to Ala Mhigo, and that was correct. That prediction was absolutely right, there’s no question about it. I did not, however, guess that we’d be going to Othard as well, which puts me in an odd position. I was completely right, yes, but I didn’t completely guess everything. Then again, seeing as how Othard was meant to be a huge shock, perhaps that is kind of the point…

Ultimately, it was the right prediction, but it was incomplete. That, however, is understandable. Up until now, we had thought that we got one new region rather than multiples in an expansion; Stormblood is rewriting that rule. We’ll know better for the third expansion.

More housing: 100% right on concept, 0% right on execution

We absolutely did get more information about housing at Frankfurt, so that’s a good thing. In fact, the core of my predictions was entirely right – we did in fact find out about more shifts coming to the mechanics as well as where the new housing district would be located. However, I guessed entirely the wrong location for the district and I had been guessing about a better form of instanced housing, not just an increase in decorative limits.

Then again, considering our partial information (there was no reason to speculate about Kugane’s addition), I’m willing to call this a partial success. After all, I was right in guessing that it wasn’t in Ala Mhigo, and based on the information I had I made a reasonable prediction. Bit of a shame that Ishgard’s going to be such a ghost town once the expansion comes out, though.

So, all told, I’d say my predictions landed around a solid 75% or so. Not completely right, but mostly right, and some of the things that were wrong were entirely unknowable before the revelations started flying fast and furious.

Launch day, simulated.

Oh, and now that we’ve seen all of it…

Right, the emotional reaction. That’s pretty easy to understand, but it’ll require a preamble.

On Wednesday this past week, I started to get sick. This was a bad thing. I got progressively worse through the tail end of the week, and I knew it was going to be an absolutely crushing burden to get up at 4:30 a.m. to write up everything going on during the keynote. There was a temptation to just stay asleep and catch everything after the fact, but I forced myself up (aided a little by sickness) and got in my chair, ready for the keynote and the accompanying announcements.

And let me tell you, I consider it entirely worthwhile. I spent most of the weekend sick, but I also spent it happy because damn.

Samurai is the first new job reveal that does not naturally fit into any of my characters. I had a secondary character who could be Samurai, but none of my characters naturally fit into the mold in-character. And the reality is that I’m still happy with it. It’s a charming design, it matches the aesthetics, it looks cool, and it fills in a spec that had previously sat empty. I may have preferred the idea of a Samurai tank, but this still fits.

Plus, if I can be a bit odd, the Far East is something that Final Fantasy XI waited to see forever. We’re never going to at this point (no, Reisenjima isn’t the same), but this feels like the other shoe finally got dropped. We’re going to see this realm and explore what it contains. I realize it’s in a totally different game, but if we get to hit the Near East with the next expansion, I’ll be pretty well satisfied.

Of course, now we have to deal with the fact that there are 120 days between now and the expansion’s launch. So we’ll have to wait for a while before all of this can be a part of our world. But I look forward to it just the same, and I think I can handle the wait until then. There’s always stuff to do.

Feedback, as always, is welcome down in the comments below or via mail to eliot@massivelyop.com. Next time around, I want to discuss what we have to look forward to over the next few months before we get the first of several small interquel patches.

The Nymian civilization hosted an immense amount of knowledge and learning, but so much of it has been lost to the people of Eorzea. That doesn’t stop Eliot Lefebvre from scrutinizing Final Fantasy XIV each week in Wisdom of Nym, hosting guides, discussion, and opinions without so much as a trace of rancor.
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10 Comments on "Wisdom of Nym: Gauging predictions after the Final Fantasy XIV fanfests"

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Jeremy Barnes

guessing 1 of 2 locations is not 100% right…it’s 50%


He didn’t guess at the quantity of locations, he just guessed right as to one of them. He even mentions that in the section about locations. In short, you’re wrong.

Danny Smith

Honestly the “XI will never get it at this point” is another reason i think Stormblood is the “Lets get the FFXI players” Like Legion was the “when in sub freefall break glass on the burning crusade player fanservice”.
You check any mmo site and you will see XI players that shat all over XIV as a “wow clone” because it wasn’t XI-2, which i found strange since that meant expecting two mainline FF titles to be near identical which is not a thing post NES, and now a lot of the same folks who wrote articles basically saying “they gave up on good ideas to make a safe clone” who are now seeing Red Mage, Samurai, the far east expansion XI never got but was so desired and all of a sudden those same folks are going “so… if i were to play you mean there are male mithra now?” and i just imagine SE thinking “we finally got em”.

Mr Poolaty

I’m one of those shitters lol. But to be fair if blizzard made wow next and then totally dumbed it down there would be those same pissed people

Kurt Shadle

Overall the reveals are great but I can’t help but wish there was a new healer/tank. Both Red Mage and Samurai look great but at the end of the day my playtime typically ends up being helaers>tanks>dps.

Kickstarter Donor

I agree. I would have liked at least another healer. Right now Scholar /White Mage/ Astrologian play quite similarly. While AST is a step in the right direction, I’d like to see a new take on healing. Also, I really with XIV would add “Support” as a player category and increase group sizes to 5.

Danny Smith

They would be nice but thats time better spent giving WHM and especially PLD the love they deserve. Paladin in particular really, really needs a revamp at this point. I would rather see it brought up to be more than the ‘joke’ class of the game than another tank spreading the balancing load AND letting PLD wither on the vine just for the sake of a new shiny.

Kickstarter Donor

I’m definitely intrigued to watch the Red Mage and Samurai. I’m not joining in the rush, but I cannot wait to see them operate.

I have a feeling (a worry?) that Othard is going to mostly be Idyllshire 2.0/Mor Dhona 3.0: a single shared space where people park in between endgame grinds. Or worse yet, another Ishgard that will become a ghost town after about four to five months.

I’d like for there to be more to the region, and I can’t say that learning that I’m right would be a dealbreaker, but still…

Kawaii Five-O

Seeing some of the passerby on the streets of Kugane in the full trailer has given me hope that my wish of getting a full-length yukata will finally be fulfilled.

Danny Smith

Yoshis already been talking about the fan demands he wants to work on. Yukatas, butt sliders, a parasol thats a mary poppins style mount and so on.

Me i just wouldnt mind some bravely default style red mage gear :p

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