Dataminer suggests massive Destiny 2 playerbase slump

If player dataminers are right, Destiny 2 is in trouble, and I’m not talking about the ongoing Eververse rioting.

Destiny 2 player and Redditor stevetheimpact collected data from roughly a tenth the playerbase between launch and the end of 2017 by scraping Bungie’s API for unique members and their last date played.

“Total player count dropped from 1,307,165 to 321,843 from launch to the end of the year, which is a drop of 75.37%,” he posted last night. “PS4 player count dropped from 712,431 to 158,523, which is a drop of 77.74%. XBox player count dropped from 594,987 to 127,428, which is a drop of 78.58%. PC player count dropped from 194,607 to 35,892, which is a drop of 81.55%.”

stevetheimpact does admit that his data represent only a sample of the total player population and aren’t 100% accurate. The raw data have been made available for anyone who wants to parse them.

Redditors have also pointed out that Bungie is currently hiring for a new Head of Narrative Development. Adding even more perspective to what’s going on over there,ย Kotaku’s Jason Schreier has spoken out about a big reboot of Destiny 2 undertaken during the game’s development and claims that the contentious Eververse cash shop was Bungie’s, not Activision’s, idea.

Source: Reddit. With special thanks to Ted!
SHARE THIS ARTICLE
Code of Conduct | Edit Your Profile | Commenting FAQ | Badge Reclamation | Badge Key

LEAVE A COMMENT

51 Comments on "Dataminer suggests massive Destiny 2 playerbase slump"

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most liked
Subscribe to:
Reader
Alex Malone

Isn’t this a fairly standard slump in players?

I remember when No Man’s Sky slumped like this there were tons of articles about it, but when you do a proper analysis of big hits, a 75%-80% drop in players is actually pretty standard. The only games that ever managed to do better were proper MMOs that were built for longevity, but with the market as it is we haven’t seen one like this in ages. Even something like ESO, which manages to maintain good player numbers, does so via player churn rather than retention.

Reader
Sray

Some perspective on the numbers.

A. This type of drop off is actually typical of all AAA mulitplayer games; that’s why we have season passes, pre-orders and day one DLC. Much like blockbuster movies, big budget games make the majority of their money early, and fade out quickly.

B. These sample numbers suggest a 80% drop in population for a game that has sold an estimated 12 million copies (according to the Reddit post we’re quoting here); which means 2.4 million people are still playing. That is rarified air for any video game, let alone a MMO.

Not making any judgement calls on the actual state of the game, but based on industry status quo, these numbers actually suggest a fairly healthy game population this far from release.

Estranged
Reader
Kickstarter Donor
Estranged

D2 just isn’t liked around these parts. LOL

Reader
Sray

If people want to dislike the game, that’s fine ; but it terrifies me that in a couple dozen responses here before me, not one person stopped to do the basic math of multiplying the results by ten to get a rough idea of how many people are still playing according to this sample. It’s always been a pet peeve of mine that whenever raw number are posted, so many people just blurt out something based on the first emotion that pops into their head before taking a moment to consider the data, and put it into some context.

Btw, my number of 2.4 million is based on simply looking at the averages, and saying “ok, that’s an 80% drop from 12 million”; but the actual math (the sample is actually just under 11%, so you have to multiply by 9 otherwise you end up with numbers that are too high) puts the number of still playing at roughly 2.9 million. The population decline trend might concerning to Activision and Bungie, but there’s also a good chance that they’re quite happy with those numbers at this point.

Estranged
Reader
Kickstarter Donor
Estranged

Right. Also, I’ll get out my salt box and say the only “commercially successful” game that is acceptable around these parts is WoW.

This game isn’t reaching Star Citizen levels of spite just yet, but the bias towards anything Destiny is obvious.

How many games wish they had 2.9 million players?

About all of them?

Reader
Knox Harrington

I don’t know about “around these parts” because I’m relatively new here, but WoW is the only “commercially successful” MMO, whether you want to accept it or not. It’s one of the top selling games of all time, MMO or otherwise. No other MMO can even come close to its commercial success.

I’m not sure the WoW vs Destiny argument is even worth having at this point considering how shallow of an experience Destiny is. It’s a very mechanically sound shooter but there’s really not much to do compared to traditional MMO’s like EQ, etc. Destiny can only be fairly compared to games closer in nature to it, like Grand Theft Auto Online or something.

Destiny strikes me as just another online game with some borrowed MMORPG elements, but not enough to satisfy traditional MMO gamers. Destiny 2’s limited social functionality alone comes to mind. They launched that game without things that have become so standard in MMO’s that we don’t even bother calling them features. I can see why people here would be salty if they bought into this game’s hype expecting a full fledged MMO experience.

Estranged
Reader
Kickstarter Donor
Estranged

Hey Knox!

Well, I can see your point.

However, there is a commonality with the Destiny 2 information, it is a search for the negative.

We already know the disapproval is real, there is no need for people to pile on with misleading “data”, in my opinion.

Guess everyone needs their cross to carry, mine is more about games trying to sell me really expensive stuff without a somewhat solid delivery date.

Everyone knew what Destiny 2 would be at launch. The game never had text chat incorporated, using mobile apps for text communication has been the normal mode since Destiny 1 launched.

Also, the game has no sub, so I don’t expect WoW level content.

If one appreciates retro versus popular, that is fine. However, there is no need to take out our frustrations on a Don Quixote crusade.

Reader
Denice J. Cook

This kept happening in Destiny 1 as it was repeatedly revamped as well. Coming, going, leaving, returning. Clearly Bungie and Activision are laughing all the way to the bank. They got your money for the game and expansions; what do they care whether you stick around to play it or not? They know they will get everyone back for the next launch.

As for the RNG loot box debacle, that’s just disgusting, though. Rather than putting off similar behavior in other games, it seems that EA’s getting caught in SW:BF2 etc. is merely drawing other devs and publishers in to copy them instead.

This leads me to believe that data mining shows they make more money that way, or enough that it’s more worthwhile just skipping the creation of new content and doing the loot box thing instead. I guess other devs and publishers jumping on board must be the result of seeing EA not back down or change (obviously that must be because the money is still rolling in, despite the vocal minority not liking it).

Reader
Patreon Donor
Kickstarter Donor
agemyth ๐Ÿ˜ฉ

I don’t think those numbers are all that strange for a game like Destiny 2. Most players are probably just interested in playing through things once, or doing the item level grind in the endgame once. It is not an MMO and the people who play it are not MMO players.

I am still confused why Bungie signed up for this shitshow with Activision (for a decade) when it wanted to get a break from Halo/Microsoft. This is still a game a lot like Halo (with loot) and they put themselves in just as difficult or more difficult deadlines and metrics to meet for ActiBlizz.

Reader
Danny Smith

Can anyone remember the last time a brand got this poisoned? I mean even battlefront 2 isnt going to do shit to the star wars brand. But how many of these players are coming back for destiny 3?

I think this ten year plan has gone rotten.

-also genuinely surprised how commonly you see folks on the Destiny reddit talk about dropping the game for MHW on the 25th. Granted im a destiny and monhun player myself and both are loot focussed to a degree i just didnt think the cross over would be as significant as it appears to be.

Which surely has bungie sweating a little.

Reader
Dug From The Earth

Both my son and I havent played since Nov, with no real desire to go back any time soon. The few co-workers that played as well, are also in the same boat.

This is another game that will judge its “amazing” success on the initial box sales, and nothing more, leading to repeat the same actions a couple years from now with Destiny 3, or their next spin off game.

Reader
Robert Mann

How can every single platform drop more than the total? Methinks there’s a math error there somewhere. *That’s all I got here, I had concerns well before release and avoided it.*

hurbster
Reader
hurbster

Says it all really…

Reader
Loyal Patron
Armsbend

“it’s hard to make content”

;_;

Reader
Bryan Turner

This reminds me of the time Blizzard tried forcing the Real Money Auction House down our throat in Diablo 3, any one see anything like that now (as more and more platinum selling games lose money off of backlash against Loot Boxes you can bet those things go to the museum of failed ideas).

Reader
Dug From The Earth

Blizzard at least had the grit to realize it was a total F-up on their part, and rework/remove/redo huge aspects of the game to turn things around. Sure, it took some time for both the needed changes, and the players to warm back up to it, but D3 became much more popular and played years after it was initially released.

Its doubtful we will see Bungie do anything similar. They are content with the box sales for the most part, and there really isnt any motivating factor to make them spend time, money and resources to go back to the drawing board. They dont seem to care about their image like Blizzard did with Diablo 3.

Mitzruti
Reader
Mitzruti

what happened on dec 9th? there’s a definite dint in the curve there.

Reader
Danny Smith

A christmas ‘event’ that people expected to be an mmo style event but really got a mobile game one where you got a tiny taste of the items but a 4 grand cash shop bill was required for all of it based on rng loot boxes. The game runs by a dirtbag mobage model.

Reader
Nathan Aldana

probably when the christmas event came out and before people realized it was nothing but a lootbox sale/.