SuperData suggests Fortnite is ‘cannibalizing’ top online games as Epic’s value reaches $14B

    
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SuperData suggests Fortnite is ‘cannibalizing’ top online games as Epic’s value reaches $14B

Last week, SuperData released a thinkpiece on how Fortnite isn’t necessarily destroying the rest of the gaming industry, but hold up because this week it’s focusing on games that are indeed floundering in Epic’s wake. “Despite claims of an industry-wide growth spurt carried by Fortnite’s success, several signs indicate material cannibalization across top incumbent franchises,” its new piece begins.

“There exists considerable overlap between the consumer profile of a Fortnite player and that of people playing League of Legends, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, and Overwatch. Audiences that like these titles generally also enjoy watching others play on streaming sites like Twitch. In terms of online viewership, we’re observing the following: in Q2 total hours watched were up +59% for Fortnite, compared to League of Legends (-19%), CS:GO (-51%) and Overwatch (-16%).”

Interestingly, SuperData seems to be needling companies like EA, Activision-Blizzard, and Microsoft, which have all downplayed the impact of Fortnite on their own bottom lines. For example, the analysts argue that without Fortnite, the gaming industry has actually taken a significant downturn.

“After a period of growth, the market is set to return to its usual zero-sum dynamic,” the firm writes. “More so, instead of raising all the boats, several of the big tentpole titles are seeing a decline, suggesting that Fortnite has been obfuscating a broader market correction among incumbent game makers.”

Around the net, SensorTower notes that Fortnite’s mobile version is averaging $2M a day in revenue, while Bloomberg suggests Epic is now “worth as much as $14 billion.”

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CasualSlacks

Remember a few years ago when people thought that Fortnite was vaporware? It was announced back in 2011. It’s Star Citizen-esque, but without the crowdfunding or public alphas.

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Sorenthaz

To be fair FortNite took like 6 years since announcement to come out and there were obviously some shakeups in development around 2013 or 2014. The PvE side also had some worrisome changes which hurt it quite a bit at launch, and ultimately the game wouldn’t be where it is right now if Battle Royale hadn’t exploded with popularity.

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bill bunny

My group actually picked league back up around the same time we started fortnite….we like to play a bit of both every night now

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Sorenthaz

Well yeah those games are not only PvP focused but they’re team-dependent. Folks who got frustrated and burned out by LoL find Fortnite to be a breath of fresh air because they’re no longer dependent on teammates, same likely goes for CSGO and Overwatch. That and big name streamers moved over as well to Fortnite so it’s kind of a no-brainer that it’s cannibalizing other games, esp. when younger teens and kids are flocking to Fortnite instead of Overwatch/LoL/CSGO.

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Robert Mann

Again, derp… of course other PvP focused games that are twitch mainstays are lesser when you have a new one on the block. It happens over and over and over again. Whether that new thing lasts or not, of course, is something that varies to an extent.

Still, the general point is that anyone with a few functioning brain cells should be able to put 2+2 together to get 4 here…

We keep seeing this story, and I keep wondering how it wasn’t too obvious to write.

Alex Js.
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Alex Js.

Most people don’t like to watch same exact game on Twitch for a long period of time (“years” in case of the games being mentioned)… What a huge surprise. /sarcasm

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velimirius

And they still dont have money to refund my petty paragon founders pack of 19.99$…

Pepperzine
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Pepperzine
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velimirius

they said within 3 weeks if not to contact them, ofc they didnt within 3 weeks, i contact them, they say they are sorry, they are under load and it will be processed and that was back in may.

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Terry*Setsua*

It’s what WOW did to th MMO genre.

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Bryan Correll

Not really. The pre-WoW MMO market, in the West at least, was super-niche. For a large number of WoW players it was their first and (still) only MMO.

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Alex Willis

Stories like this are evidence that I have aged out of a substantial shift in gaming trends. Not only have I never played Fortnite, but I have also never played League of Legends, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, or Overwatch. But here’s the kicker: I’ve also never watched anybody play a game on Twitch, because I still do not understand the appeal of watching someone else play a game when I could be playing it myself. So those are two dimensions of non-involvement for me, which tells me that I am now at a significant enough a remove to mean OLD

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XK

You and me both. I’m still trying to adjust to the idea of people spending significant amounts of their day watching YouTube, let alone the Twitch streams that seem to have supplanted it.

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Alex Willis

My brothers-in-law (who are much younger than me) don’t watch TV or movies but definitely watch like 4-6 hours of YouTube a day. I think I kind of get it — but part of that time is video game-related Let’s Play videos, when the games these videos are about are right there on their Steam lists, idle. I just don’t get it.

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bill bunny

Just like anything you want to be better at you learn from people more experienced than yourself …alot of people watch streams to get better at the game….others for entertainment…

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Sorenthaz

Also sometimes folks like to watch others play because they don’t really like playing themselves but enjoy watching someone good at the game play it. Or in the case of stuff like horror games, they just watch to see how the streamer/Youtuber reacts to the scary moments etc.

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Bryan Correll

Alex Js.
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Alex Js.

What exactly you “do not understand”? That many people would rather watch others play the game because they either can’t do it themselves (for many reasons – can’t spend $$$ for necessary hardware, they aren’t currently at location where they can play such game or have certain health issues preventing them from doing that, like I currently have) or because they like observing the streamer’s behavior when the streamer encounters certain thing they have already encountered/experienced (similar to how other “real life” friends might tell you “hey, watch/read/listen to this! Pretty cool, huh?” just to see your reaction), or because they like to interact with the streamer and receive the attention which they would not want (or not able to) receive from “offline” people? ;-)

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Armsbend

Try them – most of the games you listed are free. Arm yourself with knowledge!

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Bruno Brito

NO! DON’T PULL HIM TO THE DARK SIDE OF THE SUMMONER’S RIFT.

It took me three effin years to leave League. Never fucking again.

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Witches

I watch twitch/youtube streams all the time so i’m biased, but i find it way less strange than watching something like BB or that type of TV show, i’m usually playing something myself when i’m watching others play, it’s not like watching that crafting bar move needs my full attention.

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Bruno Brito

But here’s the kicker: I’ve also never watched anybody play a game on Twitch, because I still do not understand the appeal of watching someone else play a game when I could be playing it myself.

Improvement. Like watching someone else do it so you can do it too.

To be fair, it’s just also entertaining. Sometimes i just kick back, lay on my bed and watch Grubby play Warcraft 3.

Altho i do get your feeling. I can’t stand watching soccer when i could be the one kicking a ball and several faces.