Originally I hadn’t actually planned to do this particular column, and had instead figured that I’d just go down on reactions to the fan festival. But then I decided that this one would be fun too, hence getting two columns last week and this one today. Plus, this way when I get a whole bunch of things wrong about Final Fantasy XIV’s second fan festival, we can all laugh about it together!
I always get some things wrong. The question is whether or not it’s most things.
A new job
Even if we assume we’re just getting two new jobs with this expansion (which I think is a reasonable assumption, there’s no way we’re not getting at least one of those jobs revealed with this fan festival. There’s tweaking the pattern and then there’s just making things unpleasant.
Betting odds: It must needs occur!
A second new job
I don’t think that having this particular expansion offer three jobs instead of two is outside the realm of possibility. Considering how Yoshida outright taunted the assumptions of “no jobs mid-expansion” with the Blue Mage assumption, I feel like it’s important to more critically examine the fact that all we’ve been told is that it would be a long time before doing something like three jobs in one expansion again, not that it would definitely never happen. And considering my short list of odds for new jobs consists of four entries, I can see three being added so we get a tank, a healer, and a DPS.
That having been said? Those last two will probably be in the Japanese fan festival.
Betting odds: Ishgardian Duke
Again, it’s important to note that we have not yet been told we’re going to Garlemald. Or Nagxia. Or Thavnair. Or anywhere beyond two specific zones. Finding out where we’re going now will possibly spoil a little bit of revelation for the tail end of the patch cycle, but it’s still something that I see as likely here without the story making it fully explicit.
We sure have heard a lot about the western continent lately, huh?
Betting odds: Second or better in Frontline
Seeing as how this one got teased harder than new jobs at the first fan festival and seeing as how all of the not-even-really-hints about Fran in the Ivalice finale came to pass? Yeah, we’re going to be seeing the bunnies in an early form.
Betting odds: Is Y’shtola preparing a snappy retort?
An additional male-only race
Some people have decided, based on the lore around Viera society and the leak claiming that we’re getting two new races, that we must be getting a second male-only race and male Viera will not be playable. This is not, strictly speaking, impossible. The developers can do this. They can do almost anything they want! But it seems highly unlikely and hinges almost completely on a few statements that do not actually imply that as an absolute reality.
Again, the past few reveals have necessitated a reminder that nothing is impossible until proven so. But that’s not the way to bet here.
Betting odds: 1.0 Miqo’te booty revival
The new normal raid
My memory is honestly not perfect with these things, and while I seem to remember generally getting the announcement about the new normal raid ahead of the new Alliance raid, at this point we can assume that we’re going to get one or the other announced in Paris. The field is wide open about which one we’ll get, of course; it’ll be a dozen boss fights either way, and both of them will probably have some tie into past mythology in the franchise.
Betting odds: Every tank fighting for MT status in Alliance roulette
The new alliance raid
Or maybe we will get the announcement of the next Alliance raid because while it’s technically further in the future, it really doesn’t matter in the broadest sense. Both pieces of content may as well be equidistant in February.
Betting odds: Every tank avoiding tanking in Alliance roulette
The full trailer
This isn’t something we usually get until the third and final festival of the sequence. But again, that’s not a law of physics. More than anything, the reason for these staggered reveals is to make sure that each festival is teasing something for the next one while letting fans feel like the local festival has cool stuff to show off. I don’t expect that this trailer will necessarily be as spoileriffic as the full Stormblood one, but it’s quite possible we’ll get the whole one to coincide with the reveal of our ultimate destination for the expansion.
Betting odds: The Bowl of Embers (Hard) has ended. You learned Eruption!
Game mechanics previews
We know that the expansion is going to feature upgrades and refinements to the game’s combat system. We don’t know what all of them are going to be, but it’s quite possible that we’re going to be getting a whole mess of reveals about new abilities and some ideas of the new systems we’ll be dealing with when Shadowbringers rolls around. It’s also possible that we’ll get a peek at some new abilities without a larger context.
In other words, this is a category with a lot of volatility, and it’s hard to figure out if we should be expecting a lot or a little from the event. I’m going to say that the odds are moderate of learning something more, and from there the odds are moderate that we’ll get somewhat substantial information (including ability previews).
Betting odds: Get Bole, reshuffle, get Spear
Every expansion gets a new benchmark. It’s not really about benchmarking, though; it’s about checking out some new character customization options and seeing some of the areas we’ll be exploring along with some of the gear we’ll be sporting. These are good things. But there are no rules about when we’ll get one, and while it seems far more likely to be closer to release date… hey, we could always get a surprise.
This is not something I actually expect, of course. It’s far more likely to drop in later April as the expansion launch is right around the corner. But boy, it’d be fun to play with character creation earlier…
Betting odds: It’s like all my namedays have come at once!
Feedback and your own betting odds are welcome in the comments down below or via mail to firstname.lastname@example.org. Next time around? I’m going to see how well my guesses did and what we know that we don’t know at the time of this writing. That will most likely be a rather expansive list.