Massively OP’s Best of 2017 Awards: Most Likely to Flop in 2018 or Beyond

Massively Overpowered’s end-of-the-year 2017 awards continue today with our award for Most Likely to Flop, which was awarded to Star Citizen and WildStar in a tie last year. We’re once again happy to say both games beat our odds, though you be the judge of by how much. This unpleasant category can encompass fringe MMOs as well as unlaunched games, and remember that “flop” can mean lots of things, from outright sunset to financial ruin to simply not living up to insane hype. And we don’t actually want anything to flop!

Don’t forget to cast your own vote in the just-for-fun reader poll at the very end!

The Massively OP staff pick for Most Likely to Flop in 2018 or Beyond is…

STAR CITIZEN

Andrew Ross (@dengarsw): Probably Star Citizen, but that’s assuming it gets released in 2018. I don’t think that’s happening. I’d put Chronicles of Elyria here again, but I’m starting to think it won’t come out this year either, so I’ll include a third option: Dauntless. I want it to do well, but Capcom’s Monster Hunter World has shown me things Dauntless hasn’t even suggested. It’s hard to get psyched for Monster Hunter “lite” when the original’s looking very, very good.

Brendan Drain (@nyphur): Star Citizen.

Brianna Royce (@nbrianna): Star Citizen is the obvious pick here. I think WildStar might make it another year, but I always suspect it’s a coin flip for that game and whatever NCsoft executive makes the call. And I have grave concerns about the health of some of the hypey gankbox indies on the horizon as well as the old-school throwbacks. But yeah, Star Citizen isn’t going to implode, just disappoint, flop in a No Man’s Sky kind of way. We’ll all be old and grey by the time it ever lives up to the hype.

Eliot Lefebvre (@Eliot_Lefebvre): I put Star Citizen here first because let’s be real here, the same things I said about this title last year apply this year, and thus it’s less “this game deserves to win” and more “enjoy this lifetime achievement award for not actually releasing while driving expectations up even further.” This year did seem to show some pretty big cracks in the facade, but nothing has actually changed. So let’s instead talk about Ashes of Creation, which has also managed to drum up an awful lot of hype and money with an awfully small amount to actually show for all of that and some remarkably tone-deaf marketing stunts. My hopes are not high, especially when it’s already fallen into the WildStar-esque cycle of hyping how great it’s going to be while missing the obvious warning signs of what it’s doing wrong.

Justin Olivetti (@Sypster): Devilian. I mean, there are a lot of barely surviving MMOs out there (always have been, really), but I definitely think the writing is on the wall for this unpopular MMOARPG in Trion’s library. The developing studio might be dropping it in the future, so that does not bode well.

Larry Everett (@Shaddoe): Everything that is owned or partially owned by Disney. At this point in the games, Lucasfilm, Disney, Marvel, and anyone connected with that giant media conglomerate have completely lost sight on how to make video games, especially online games. I have lost all confidence in anything they do besides movies. This is sad because Lucasfilm/LucasArts used to make really innovative and groundbreaking games.

MJ Guthrie (@MJ_Guthrie): Unless it adds much more soon, I’d have to say Dauntless. Dauntless is currently still in development and slowly adding features, but its market also has another popular title that is much more fleshed out. There isn’t much to do yet in game: There’s only a few different behemoths, limited weaponry, and horrific in-town lag that I worry will drive its audience away.

Tina Lauro Pollock (@purpletinabeans): I vote for Star Citizen simply because of the weight of expectation that surrounds the title, the way main development progress is sidelined by meeting crowdfunding promises, and my worries for its sustainability with such a convoluted, muddy business model. I can see how difficult it is becoming for the team to deliver on those lofty promises and 2017 has not reassured me at all that they can cope.

Star Citizen took our award for Most Likely to Flop in 2018. What’s your pick?

Reader poll: Which MMORPG is most likely to flop in 2018 or beyond?

  • Star Citizen (54%, 1,010 Votes)
  • Dauntless (2%, 44 Votes)
  • WildStar (6%, 105 Votes)
  • Ashes of Creation (2%, 45 Votes)
  • Everything owned by Disney (4%, 72 Votes)
  • Devilian (2%, 28 Votes)
  • Chronicles of Elyria (2%, 41 Votes)
  • New World (0%, 3 Votes)
  • Dark and Light (1%, 12 Votes)
  • Destiny 2 (5%, 87 Votes)
  • Bless (1%, 14 Votes)
  • Albion Online (2%, 33 Votes)
  • Pantheon (1%, 18 Votes)
  • Shroud of the Avatar (10%, 180 Votes)
  • Camelot Unchained (1%, 27 Votes)
  • Crowfall (1%, 24 Votes)
  • Valiance Online (1%, 10 Votes)
  • City of Titans (1%, 22 Votes)
  • Ship of Heroes (1%, 17 Votes)
  • AIR (1%, 19 Votes)
  • Nothing (1%, 26 Votes)
  • Something else (tell us in the comments, but try not to enjoy it) (1%, 21 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,858

Loading ... Loading ...
Poll options include all games nominated plus other games we thought would be worthy.

MOP’S 2017 AWARDS (SO FAR)
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160 Comments on "Massively OP’s Best of 2017 Awards: Most Likely to Flop in 2018 or Beyond"

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Tim Schäble

My SotA Account got n strike and my post in the official forum got deleted for saying that they are rank 2 in the flop award *clap* good job Börek

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pesko

It’s a shame that this “flop” award can be given for innuendo and old perception alone, with little actually backed up by explanation. The only substantive comment given for the vote is Tina’s and only backed because of the vague definition of flop that allows for it “not living up to insane hype.”

Did any of the people who voted for it to be a flop play SC alpha 3.0? This game continues to show progress to realize its vision. From the start, I’ve stated that I don’t want another half-ass game release that doesn’t do much for the genre or gaming. For the most part, incremental improvement is pretty much all we have received from the corporate game studios because it’s the best recipe for profit. From the start, I wanted a revolutionary game, and from the amount raised, I’m not alone. Yes, the timeline has slipped. Feature creep? Sure. Naive timelines? Probably. Completely redoing systems because of a fetish for perfection? Perhaps. A fraudulent scheme? I absolutely do not believe so, and I challenge anyone to show evidence otherwise. To me, SC would be a flop if it cut its scope just to foolishly meet the expectations of industry experts.

The only reason SC can get the flop award is because there was an expectation to develop and make public a release schedule. Just think about all the other flop-worthy games in development that might be out there that don’t have to tell anyone anything outside of their corporate overlords.

Lastly, when I originally backed this site, I had hoped that the site would be free of passing judgment on games based on prevailing gaming-culture sentiment and would care to look a little deeper, free of innuendo. Largely, this has been the case, but in this situation, it seems like “gee, everybody likes to make fun of Star Citizen, let’s do that, too!”

Reader
Joe Blobers

A quick snapshot do allow to detect CIG or SC names here and there. I won’t even bother reading each 155 comments. Some do provide the answer that match their past position, whatever the future can be.
The “Flop” potential is equal to the “collapse” certainty…. = zero.
CIG do keep hiring, they keep receiving new pledges and even if pledges do drop by half, they do have private investors and a substantial bucket of cash.
2018 is not for CIG a year of flop but a year of bugs fixing, performance improvement, new contents (jobs and planets)… hence more Backers.

In short, CIG is as close of a flop than NMS to be an alternative option to BF4… :)

Reader
TotalCowage .

2018 or beyond? Star Citizen, but it won’t be in 2018 unless there’s something disastrous hidden in the immediate financials.

The problem is, the media has largely ignored crowd funding stories, and I’ve not heard any in depth critical coverage of SC since Kotaku’s investigation in September 2016. It’s either shameless boostering or just a general, not-gonna-stick-my-head-out-on-this suspicion… So I can’t honestly consider myself informed about how healthy the project really is. All I can say is that with the sums they’ve taken in, and continue to get, I think this drama will just drag on and on…

But Shroud of the Avatar? Having foolishly backed that myself, and thus following it very closely… That’s the one that got my vote.

It’s already been technically launched for more than a year. The details recently discovered with their Russian publisher, BlackSun, indicate they’d been planning to move the game to F2P as far back as 2015. They’ve already driven off most of the former backers, the F2P systems haven’t brought many newer ones in, and permanent fundraising combined with a spectacularly toxic community means it’s an unbelievably unappealing product to try and sell.

But just like Star Citizen, as long as the Whales continue to buy in the Add On Store, they’ll keep it chugging along. So… “launched” in March, but I expect it to be moved to maintenance mode, with no more true development before the year is out. You’ll never see Episode 2, much less the stated 5, despite funding those at Kickstarter. You’ll be lucky to see the physical rewards still outstanding… those too are going to have to come out of post F2P profits, of which I can’t see too many until they stop bothering updating the game.

Closed in 2018 though? Possible. “Ultimate Collector”, their previous title was closed in under a year from it’s launch. Portalarium aren’t necessarily shy about cutting and running. But never, ever underestimate the amount of money people are willing to sink into avoiding admitting the truth to themselves. So this one may drag on and on too…

kezazzamean
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kezazzamean

I don’t think Shroud of The Avatar will close in 2018. I do believe it will go into survival mode (if it isn’t pretty much at that state already). Keeping a skeleton crew afloat by netting in the remaining whales can keep the game open for awhile… Until they find their next scam to go after.

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Armsman

((Deleted by mod. Please review the commenting code.))

deekay_plus
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deekay_plus

you have to be really obtuse to not know what he means when he says nothing has really changed this year”

and it hasn’t in the sense he’s clearly talking about. if anything it’s worse than previous years.

and that is, feature creepy sales on a tight schedule while delays mount despite the weekly marketting video spam assuring us it’s right around the corner for A WHOLE YEAR.

Reader
Tiresias

I think it’s harsh to say that Star Citizen is going to flop, especially when what is available to play right now is so much fun.

I certainly don’t think that it’s going to live up to the hype, but then again… what has?

I am super-skeptical of Shroud of the Avatar right now.

Also, Destiny 2 has one more chance to save itself. If the next DLC isn’t amazing, and if they don’t fix some broken game systems between now and then, it will never recover and Destiny 3 won’t ever exist.

Reader
Skyrant

especially when what is available to play right now is so much fun.

Have we been playing the same PTU? I would not call below 30 FPS fun, most of the time you are lucky to get 15 FPS. I would not call constant crashes fun, dying because the game engine and physics are broken, unable to complete any mission because the chance you discover one of the literally thousands of bugs is pretty much guaranteed.

FUN, Surely not.

Reader
Jonny Sage

The latest FPS certainly sucks, but before that, I hopped into my ship, flew to a planet, got out and walked around. That was unique. And its only Alpha. No where to go but up.

Reader
shear

Yeah as unique as no man’s sky.

Reader
Jonny Sage

Fine. I also hopped in someone elses ship and flew in a squad to the planet and we all got out. Do that in your solo game.

Reader
shear

Not mine I don’t play it.
“I also hopped in someone elses ship and flew in a squad to the planet and we all got out.”

Are you kidding me? That’s revolutionary gameplay? You all flew to a planet and got out? Was there anything interesting to do on the planet? Fucking lol.

cmdr_cotic
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cmdr_cotic

Isn’t that what they said in the opening paragraph though?

…and remember that “flop” can mean lots of things, from outright sunset to financial ruin to simply not living up to insane hype.

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mistressbrazen

While I don’t support what CIG is doing, I don’t think SC will flop. What gets released in 2018 won’t be big enough to represent the bulk of the project so I think the backers will hang in. Whatever is released as I said earlier this week, will have supporters and haters. But over all, I think they will keep creeping along. I said whatever New World puts out, but then I realized it’s unlikely they will get anything out the door in 2018. I think all 3 CoH successors are safe for 2018, it’s 2019 where the wheat and chafe will be separated. Destiny 2 i s getting lots of bad press, but I feel bad voting for it because I don’t play that or the other games on the list. Poor Wildstar. I wanted to like that so badly, but I do hope it manages to hang on another year, at least for the folks who still like playing it.

Reader
Melissa McDonald

I don’t see any way a “finished, Retail” version of Star Citizen launches in 2018. I think its ultimate reality is in a product that can’t possibly live up to the hopes and dreams of the player community, and also, the marketing coming from the game itself. We go through this fairly routinely – a game is announced, we see screenshots, our minds fill in the rest, and can be stoked by the game devs/owners/publishers with the proper amount of sauce.

Reality will be a video game with the same limits most of them have. Nice graphics. Etc.

Reader
Cosmic Cleric

Also, a bonus for us gamers will be having a game that does NOT come from a publisher, but from developers directly.

Reader
Chris Walker

Star Citizen has a chance to flop, although I think it has enough support to keep it afloat.

5seconds2urheart
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5seconds2urheart

I have a feeling EVE online will be shut down this year. The F2P this was a flop, selling skill injections reeked of desperation, them laying off the whole CM team and all the financial issues. The game is ancient and it’s best days are far behind it.

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Chris Walker

I think EVE lasts a *minimum* of 3-4 more years. As “ancient” as the game is in MMO years, visually it’s still quite nice, its massiveness is unmatched, and its player-created emergent gameplay remains unique in the industry. Plus, your observations seem more opinion than fact, except for them laying off much of the community team (although not all of them as you claim).

5seconds2urheart
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5seconds2urheart

Player created emergent gameplay. Fancy way to say role playing. People have been doing that for decades. It’s about as unique as…well it isn’t unique at all. I don’t need facts to justify my opinion. It’s an opinion.

Reader
Skyrant

Player created emergent gameplay. Fancy way to say role playing.

Someone clearly has no idea what he is talking about and never played EVE Online. EVE is possibly the furthest you can get away from role playing possible.

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Kayweg

I don’t even expect SC to launch in 2018, whether it’ll flop when it finally is released (yes, sorry, i’m still not persuaded to jump on the “scam wagon”) is a different matter. In any case, that’ll fall into the beyond category.
For me, at a more imminent risk, because it’s to be released in 2018, is SotA.
And like others, i worry about Wildstar. Then again, it has proven to be more resilient than expected for quite some time now…fingers crossed.

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Bryan Correll

I don’t think SC will actually launch next year, but I still don’t think it’s actually going to ‘flop’ in any real sense. I don’t think it’s launch is going to be spectacular, but I think it will be successful (and good) enough to satisfy those who haven’t already soured on it completely. As I’ve said before the cash shop excesses have definitely dulled my enthusiasm for the game, but there are plenty of cases where whale riding has been a successful (financially at least) strategy.

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Kickstarter Donor
flying_dutchman

My question to SC is this.. To a lot of games 200 mil is a smashing success. That depends on how much they are actually spending though.

I know EA spent 200 million on JUST the voice acting of TOR but I think they acutally made money on TOR, but it’s a SW game. I think GTAV cost upwards of 300 mill, but they made over a billion.

It would be interesting to me to see just how MUCH money Cpt. Roberts has spent and how much they have left. All the digital goods selling they are going tells me they are hurting for money. I know that’s not necessarily true, as I havn’t seen any real numbers and we’ll probobly never see any unless SC goes under and someone sues.

I DO know they have a massive team spread out all over the globe and 200 million just doesn’t buy what it used to.

cmdr_cotic
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cmdr_cotic

With some widely used industry numbers we can get a ballpark figure. $10,000 per man month is the amount a lot of studios have used since year 2000 to estimate development costs.

Adding up CIG’s employees on a yearly basis since the project started gives a total of 1268, multiply by 12 for number of months = 15,216 and then multiply by $10,000 = $152 million

However there’s obviously a lot more to it than that, they paid for a lot of contractors early on, they converted and equipped a load of premises and all of that stuff, and to top it off various studio heads feel that $10,000 per man month might be as much as a third under the real cost of development today. So it could be as much as $200 million.

The question I always have is, if it has cost between $150 million and $200 million to get what we have today, how much is it going to cost to get a proper release version of SC and SQ42?

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T. kuvesi

Game devs are the least paid software developers. Furthermore, UK and Frankfurt devs tend to be paid a fraction of their US counterparts, and the bulk of CIG employees are in UK/Frankfurt. Not to mention that basically everyone at CIG is a relatively new hire.

I’m beyond skeptical about this $10k per man month guestimate. The bulk of them are likely being paid around $2.2k / mo, which by another widely used industry guestimation method (the cost of an employee is 2x their salary) would be costing CIG less than $5k / mo, so there is the very real possibility that they haven’t used even $80mil yet.

taojeff
Reader
taojeff

Any point of reference for the $10k/man month? and what country is it referring to?

Also which studios believe it could be under-estimating?

The main reason I’m asking is because without knowing the sources of these figures and claims, anyone could dismiss it as being stuff you’ve made up.

For anyone interested, (I looked into this after asking the above questions) going off the financial statements from Foundry 42, staff remuneration averaged just under £44.5k in 2016, which puts it at approx US$60.2k or US$5k / month (Calculated using the avg exchange rate for the pound to USD for 2016). BUT, if you factor in all other expenses (Ignoring the tax rebate), you get about US$106k / staff member. Out of curiosity I did also check Frontier Studio’s financials as well since I have seen claims that CIG is underpaying staff, their avg remuneration is £44.5k (Their figures were stated in 000’s hence the round figure) Factoring in other expenses the annual cost per staff was US$97. Worth noting is Frontier’s average staff count was 8 higher than the previous year, while F42’s increased by 89 on their previous year.

Reader
A Dad Supreme

I see at least five that will flop, but Star Citizen is the Secretariat of the bunch I think.

Still think I’d buy a finished copy but there’s that problem with the whole “finished” copy thing… but honestly, it’s one game that if finally done and not a disaster I wouldn’t mind having players say “I told you so!”

But I doubt that will ever happen the way things have been going.

hurbster
Reader
hurbster

Elf Butts Online will crash and burn spectacularly.

In all seriousness Star Citizen can do whatever (was anyone expecting it next year ?) only care about Squadron 42.

Reader
Bryan Correll

Elf Butts will sway but not tumble.

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agemyth 😩

Plenty of those could flop and excluding my go-to vote every year, Star Citizen, I say there is not a market for three indie non-licensed super hero games. I don’t think there is room for two of these. I think the weakest of the three is Valiance Online. The name also sucks and will be hard to communicate as a super hero game, I think.

wandris
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wandris

Sort of blows my mind how quickly people are jumping on the SC disillusionment bandwagon. Was it not clear a few years ago that it was most likely going to be a 2019 or 2020 release? At this rate they will be pressured into releasing something before its actually ready. Thus creating the flop you are all predicting it will be. It is possibly a once every 10-20 years opportunity for a game which makes a leap instead of the incremental evolution in game design we are accustomed to. At this point there is everything to lose and nothing to gain by drumming up outrage. I only hope they say no refunds, ignore all outside pressure and try to do everything they were going to do to start with. Even if SC releases in 2020 and it is a complete failure and a total shite game the attempt would have been worth it.

deekay_plus
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deekay_plus

it’s been hyped as releasing two years from now since 2012. until fiarly recently we’ve had all assurances from CIG and the fandom that it would be just another couple years and tight regular meaty updates and 3.0 is just around the corner any week now.

there are other games that do the fluffy but neat details sc does or wants to do in the future. the actual game design elements are barebones and need a tonne of further development if not out right iteration and redesign. and instead we’re treated to feature creep on an unprecedented scale because chris roberts played ark one weekend and decided players should play a poop meter.

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Kickstarter Donor
Alex Willis

Shroud of the Avatar. You can hear the air loudly leaking that balloon as we speak.

deekay_plus
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Patreon Donor
deekay_plus

the news that they only have 2 months of liquidity at any given time and their oh so sad fundraising streams and who knows what their equity crowdunding campaign pulled in makes me almost certain that unless gariot starts dumping his own money into the company they will be out of business before too long.

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athiev

It raises deep issues of temporality. Will Shroud flop next year, or has it flopped over the last few years?

Reader
Oleg Chebeneev

I knew who you all name before I loaded the article. It funny actually, because I hear this “SC will flop”, “SC will die” since… like 4 years ago? Every single year everyone and their mom predicts doomsday scenario to this game while it goes through another huge milestone both financial and in development.
Im fairly confident it will be the same in 2018. SC will probably pass 200 million mark in funding. There will be alot of new cool stuff developed and added to alpha. We might even see fully finished Stanton system by the end of 2018.

Cris’ team shut down haters many times before and it will keep doing it till official launch. When even die hard haters like Derek Smart will have to admit their defeat.

Personally voted for Crowfall since I dont see any appeal in this game, but reading comments below I fully agree about Dauntless. MOnster Hunter World will straight up kill it.

Reader
Jed Slater

LOL, I think Crytek got something to say about that, they basically got two options, settle and pay whatever CT want, or go to court lose and then pay whatever the judge say they need to pay, and it’s all gonna be paid with backers money.

viajero1
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viajero1

I knew who you all name before I loaded the article. It funny actually, because I hear this “SC will flop”, “SC will die” since… like 4 years ago?

I am afraid it does not work like that. Star Citizen has not even released yet (6 years and counting) and therefore, if at all, it is to be considered “flopped” by default unless proven otherwise, i.e. by CIG succeeding finally in releasing it commercially in gold. Years passing without such release are not a sign of good health as you suggest, quite the contrary.

Reader
primal

yeah your right games are built over night!!! realistically speaking its only really been 5 years since they properly got going unless you think 7-12 people with no money could do this? i think if they take any longer than 2020 then it likely wont make it out

viajero1
Reader
viajero1

Not my intention to go into a discussion about if 6 years is about par for the course for SC or not (although that is an interesting discussion in its own right). I am simply pointing out the fallacy of the text I quoted.

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Oleg Chebeneev

Are you really calling every single game in development “a flop” until proved otherwise? wow..

Go tell Red Dead Redemption 2 and Last of Us 2 devs that their games already flopped lol.

viajero1
Reader
viajero1

Not really, I am just using the same argument you used to state that a game that is still in development means it has not failed yet.

Let me put it in a different way. Would you also stay behind your original post if the number of years was, let’s say, 35 instead of 4+? I hope we can agree that if CIG hadnt release by then then we can agree the game has flopped.

In other words, simply stating the obvious about the time the game has been in development so far (as you implied in your first post) is not at all any argument that you can use to say the game has not or will not flop.

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Oleg Chebeneev

Have you ever heard of presumption of innocence? You are trying to make it looks like arugement “not guilty until proved guilty” to be the same as “guilty until proved not guilty”. Its not. Because if it was, every single person on earth would be guilty in every single crime ever commited. You see how stupid it would be? Same applies here. Until game actually fails, means shuts down or gets miserable sales, you cant say “it flopped”. But I can say it didnt flop until nothing bad happened to it.

Got it?

viajero1
Reader
viajero1

No. This is not about proving someone guilty of a crime that we do not even know if they attempted or not in the first place. This is about proving if someone that is confirmed to have embarked on a project can finish it off or not successfully.

I have tried to show you the fallacy of your original post by using your same logic. You seem to claim that because the game has not flopped officially yet that it will indeed succeed, and I quote you “Cris’ team shut down haters many times before and it will keep doing it till official launch.”

Well all I argue is that (since there is a chance that the game will never launch or have a flopped release) what you say is exactly as ridiculous and as misguided as assuming the game has flopped already.

Now how big that chance to flop or not to release as promised is, is open to debate.

Reader
Rhime

LOL wut? The uninformed continue to speculate…

viajero1
Reader
viajero1

Pray tell which part of SC not yet being commercially released is speculation?

Reader
Rhime

I was referring to this…”I am afraid it does not work like that. Star Citizen has not even released yet (6 years and counting) and therefore, if at all, it is to be considered “flopped” by default unless proven otherwise, i.e. by CIG succeeding finally in releasing it commercially in gold. Years passing without such release are not a sign of good health as you suggest, quite the contrary.
Sorry I wasn’t clear…

viajero1
Reader
viajero1

I understand. You have not yet responded to the question though:
– Star Citizen has not released yet (fact and not speculation)
– A non released game is obviously not a game. And therefore flopped as a game by default (straightforward consequence of the fact above) unless proven otherwise by releasing.
– Years passing with no release continue to mean no game, see points above.

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nesh

> Star Citizen has not released yet (fact and not speculation)

As soon they started selling in-game items (disregarding backer rewards) they are released (working or not).

Or should we give a pass to the all perpetual alphas/betas/early access out there?

I’d love to be proven wrong but, it should not be in the “flop” category, it should be in vaporware one.

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Alberto

Mmmm disagree w your definition of “FLOP” it has to come out and then fail to live up to “most expectations to “Flop”. What your saying is similar to “If your Not in a race you Lost that race”, “When if your not IN the race you can’t lose the race. And we all know SC isn’t coming out in 2018!!!

viajero1
Reader
viajero1

Not really. If a game fails to release (be it due to mismanagement or lack of funds or whatever) it would also be a way to flop. The developers would have failed in their work.

Reader
Sally Bowls

This is sad because Lucasfilm/LucasArts used to make really innovative and groundbreaking games.

When? In the last decade? I have never played a LA game; maybe this was just before my time. All I remember recently was what a development mess/disappointment 1313 was.

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Sorenthaz

I think they’re mostly paying a nod to LucasArts back in in the 90’s. Looking through this list, there are a good number of classics like the old Star Wars games (including TIE Fighter which was groundbreaking for its time IIRC), the Monkey Island series, and Grim Fandango. Also of course they licensed a lot of great Star Wars games in the 2000’s, but that was after they stopped doing as much development on their own.

deekay_plus
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deekay_plus

the thing is they were dead as a studio long before the disney buy out and closure. none of the people that once made LA one ofthe most creative studios in gaming have been there in decades.

all we say of 1313 was a QTE cutscene filled demo that didn’t show interesting game play for even when the demo was new. idk how people got all that excited over that.

i mean i hate that EA has exclusive sw rights for the next decade don’t get me wrong. none of EA’s studios have the kind of talent or vision for the kinds of star wars games i want to play.

but LA was little more than an IP farm for a veryyyyyyyy long time before it was put to pasture.

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Schmidt.Capela

LucasArts used to get very involved with the third party games they licensed. Sometimes it backfired (SWG’s holocrons, and later the NGE, is as much their fault as it’s Sony’s), but it usually resulted in great games (like KotOR).

Though, yeah, LucasArts golden years were way back, when they were best known for the Star Wars flight sims and their adventure games.

For those that never played those old games, a number of them have been remastered, some by LucasArts themselves and some by Double Fine (a studio founded in 2000 by a LucasArts dev); if you like point-and-click adventure games, take a look at the remastered versions of Monkey Island (and Monkey Island 2), Day of the Tentacle, Full Throttle, and Grim Fandango. If you can stand old graphics, Indiana Jones and the Fate of Atlantis is also well worth a look. Each of them can be purchased for $5 or less in the current Steam sale.

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Thomas Zervogiannis

Yup, LucasArts golden years go way back to 1987, starting with ZacMcracken on the SCUMM engine (Maniac Mansion before that) and being pioneers in the then-popular adventure games.

Cadaver
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Cadaver

Shroud of the Avatar.

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Dug From The Earth

This has been the hardest vote so far…

So many are walking the line right now, a slight nudge would push them over. Some were doomed to fail before they are even complete, and some have just been dying a slow, dragged out death for some time now. Then there are the mega-bad business decision games, that are pissing off and losing customers left and right. I dont think there is any wrong answer here.

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Schlag Sweetleaf

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citizen flop.gif
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rafael12104

LOL! That was awesome. Thank god Chris wasn’t wearing a mankini.

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cursedseishi

I’m joining in with MJ and Andrew in voting for Dauntless. Star Citizen is the most obvious by far, but that is a game that hasn’t even left alpha and it is already the end of 2017. If you want to be extremely generous, it’s proper launch will likely be the late few months of 2018–and I do mean late.

But Dauntless is the one that appears like it will launch in 2018 so it can actually flop. Can’t bellyflop while you are still climbing the diving board after all.

Nothing against the game itself. RaiderZ, bad as a name as that was, actually had a bit of fun to it while it held the title of ‘Monster Hunter-Lite’. Then I forgot about it completely the next time I picked up Monster Hunter! Watching everything that has come out for it, it looks… fun… but a lot of the combat looks rather floaty… and not in a fun “Dynasty Warriors so everything floats’ way, more so like “why am I playing Skyrim as melee again’ sort of way. Not a lot of impact, I’ve seen some videos where health drops but there’s no obvious ‘hit’ shown much like you’d see in just about any MMO… The art direction is fine, but for me it honestly feels like it veers too sharply towards that World of Warcraft when I’d rather see… Warhammer/Allods.

I’m sure it’ll be a serviceable game, but… well numbers don’t lie and right now MH:W has an actual number. 34 Days till release compared to… when? If they are lucky, they’ll take so long that they give Worlds a wide birth before going into a publicly accessible state. The last thing they need to do is pull a “Battleborn” and think they can compete with the ‘Overwatch’ of… the…Monster Hunting… genre…

Yeah…

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Gaz Instone

I see smarts goons have been pulled in to vote 😂

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cursedseishi

Implying that he-who-isn’t-worth-naming would send his goons here.

Seriously, last I saw him crop up in the comments of old he was still decrying the site and claiming Bree and Co. had some lopsided love affair with Star Citizen and were all out to get him, even after he swore off ever visiting the site again a few times.

Don’t need Captain Toxie to lead his trash here just to say some common sense. SC is hyped to all hell, even with all the delays and issues. There is a critical mass to hype, and it might be coming near the event horizon of it.

Also, avoiding his name since if you say it three times while he is looking in a mirror, he might pop up.

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CovertOpsCloaking

I don’t know at what to laugh the hardest, the fact that you think there’s been a pulling of goons or the fact that you think Smartie leads them into battle against the righteous army of the PC Game saviours.

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Sorenthaz

Star Citizen is almost bound to collapse under its own hype. It’s inevitable at this point between the cult-like following and the regular PR shenanigans.

Wildstar and SWTOR are strong candidates for getting thrown into maintenance mode with Wildstar potentially risking getting shut down entirely. Most of the Kickstarter MMOs are harder to really judge just because they’re not really far enough along in testing or so on.

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mike foster

One of the things I have said forever is that even if SC launches and is GREAT it still won’t live up to the hype. It’s just not possible.

It’s a game. It will always be a game. At then end of the day it will be “go get this, go shoot that, go do this.” That’s all a game can ever be, even if it’s interesting and beautiful and has tons of brilliant layers on top of those things.

My only hope is that all of the backers find what they want in it. I don’t believe that’s likely (and personally I don’t think we’ll ever see anything even close to what’s been promised), but I still hope.

Edit: The other huge question is, who is going to buy that game that hasn’t already? SC fans seem to believe it’s going to cause some sort of revolutionary tremor in the industry and sell a zillion copies when everyone sees how incredible it is, but that’s just not reality. What’s the long-term plan for sustaining the game?

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Oleg Chebeneev

You dont take one thing into account. All the new Star Citizen content is been released on alpha servers on regular basis. So fans know exactly what to expect from it because they can actually play it. Many have been in alpha for years now. And those tho didnt play it, probably arent that hyped into SC anyway and will be pleasantly surprised.

Its very different from Warhammer ONline, where game was hyped through the roof but noone could test actual gameplay until beta not long before release.

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shear

“One of the things I have said forever is that even if SC launches and is GREAT it still won’t live up to the hype. It’s just not possible.”

100% this, and there is so much precedent set for this as well, the longer the game is in development the more it has to deliver. People are already playing this game in their heads and that is so dangerous for CiG because they can’t possibly deliver the dream to everyone.

They are selling and going to continue to sell in-game money for real money. So, in reality, people will always be able to buy ships in the game with real money they will just have to get through one extra step of turning the money into in-game money and then ship. It has worked wonders for them so far.

It’s so funny though, due to there being no levels your ship and equipment is directly attached to how powerful you are in the game, and you can and will be able to purchase power, so by definition, it is pay to win and yet SC is getting a pass.

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primal

SC is hardly getting a pass, theres already been tons of stuff over whether being able to buy the ships now etc is pay 2 win and all that its just died off. itll come back when its closer to release or when its in beta where its all pretty much locked down.

There has to be microtransactions in the game though because they cant possibly have a model where they deliver more content for free (i.e. no paid expansions) without having a source of income.

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shear

I will disagree with you on the pass. Go to SC reddit and make a post asking if their future monetization strategy amounts to pay to win and see what happens.

There are so many different kinds of microtransactions they could do, from cosmetic stuff to even a sub, hell I bet most people would gladly pay a sub if it means level playing field.

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Cosmic Cleric

I really hate this subject, kind of brings out the worst in people.

Also, what is meant by “flop”? Goes out of business, or just doesn’t pull in WoW revenue numbers? Or WoW pop numbers? Or ???

Finally, people’s personal perceptions don’t always match up with reality, so soliciting opinions on this topic is problematic. If anyone could really predict the future, they’d be in Vegas doing two shows a night.

Anyway, sorry to bah humbug the topic, but the bah humbug comments were getting to me. :)

P.S. A +1 to Utakata’s comment …

WildStar? That’s already flopped from some years ago. How can it flop again? o.O

Also, I would of add WoW’s next expansion to that list.

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agemyth 😩

This unpleasant category can encompass fringe MMOs as well as unlaunched games, and remember that “flop” can mean lots of things, from outright sunset to financial ruin to simply not living up to insane hype. And we don’t actually want anything to flop!

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Cosmic Cleric

Yeah I saw, thanks for pointing it out though.

What I was trying to comment towards was which one of those do we choose to discuss? If all, then it’s too all-encompassing, and conversation is wasted. The fact that the article “casted too wide of a net”.

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Zora

The critical mass mr. Roberts coalesced around his pet project isn’t likely to be defeated in terms of risks, that much is a given.

That said, is there any disney-owned franchise out there that isn’t…oh right, SWTOR… possible, yes. But don’t jinx it will you?!

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Castagere Shaikura

I think all these kick starter mmo’s will flop. Non of them have mass appeal at all. The only people that will play them are backers and word of mouth. There are just to many choices.

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Ariel Domen

SWTOR

Nick
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Nick

Everything owned by Disney just sounds like a petty option.

I chose Bless. I’d like to see Star Citizen flop but it has a following of lemmings that toss money into the deep chasm of nothing that is the game.

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Sorenthaz

“Everything owned by Disney” is mostly poking at stuff like Marvel Heroes and Battlefront 2’s dramas as well as SWTOR steadily circling the drain.

Nick
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Nick

Oh in that event this is plausible. Lol

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Danny Smith

Wildstar is a zombie at this point and Destiny 2 has enough cash shop whales to make silver one of the best selling things on PSN so Bungie has no need to change when its on whale life support.
Meanwhile the whole ‘scam citizen’ deal and the extreme cult mentality of the people who are the butt of jokes with screencaps of “i spent my kids college fund on a ship and my wife is pissed” stuff is a constantly compounding colossus of potential trainwrecks. Like a jenga tower of crap that looks like if it bombs it will be absolutely spectacular to watch.

If Wildstar is a rotting compost heap Star Citizen is a beautiful ice sculpture holding up a stick of dynamite in a very hot basement filled with more dynamite. Right now its somehow holding together but you expect it to blow up at any moment.

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Fervor Bliss

Star Citizen will need to launch before failing. So much deserved criticism of the game. Doubt it will be accepted well at launch.
I would pick Daybreak Game Studio. Maybe DC Universe or Planetside 2.

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CMDR ShrunkenQuasar

Honestly, I’m surprised Wildstar hasn’t died yet. That thing is like a zombie. Mostly dead but yet keeps on ticking.

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Wilhelm Arcturus

Doesn’t it have to ship before it flops? As an ongoing enterprise dedicated to milking the faithful, Star Citizen seems to still have legs, even if a big donor defects now and again. If, at some future date, it actually ships… by which I mean leave behind all the criticism deflecting “work in progress” caveats… then anybody expecting an in-rush of new players will be gravely disappointed. It has already peaked in popularity. But I do not expect it will leave the protective cocoon of “not done yet!” for years to come.

At some point people will stop handing Chris Roberts money, but by then he’ll have lived out his fantasy and if the game doesn’t get finished… well, it was the technical limits of the time. “We just couldn’t get there from where we started!” he’ll say and live happily ever after.

As a video game attempting to meet a long list of goals and features while pleasing a specific fan base, I suspect it will arguably “flop” at some future date. But we’ve yet to get there. As a public spectacle dedicated to aggrandizing Chris Roberts and his ability to harness space sim nostalgia for his own enrichment, I think it has succeeded already. P. T. Barnum would be proud!

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Utakata

WildStar? That’s already flopped from some years ago. How can it flop again? o.O

Also, I would of add WoW’s next expansion to that list.

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Sally Bowls

My guess is the next WoW expansion will get more revenue – and criticism here – than everything else on the list combined.

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Utakata

I dunno about that.

But I should add though, like Cata and Warlords before it, it will likely do very well for the first few months…followed by a dissatisfied bleed off of notable proportions. Which IMO still falls under the term “a flop”…

…of course, I could be entirely wrong here. /shrug :)

pepperzine
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pepperzine

A lot of these titles seem too late to flop… I feel like a title flops out of the gate, if it’s already launched or been on the market for awhile it could be mismanaged, but to me flop intrinsically is associated with hype to try something. Maybe that’s just me.

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Chosenxeno .

How does Shroud of the Avatar not have more votes? Is it that irrelevant already?

Also, If you are handing out Gift Cards for you Workplace Parties don’t be a dick by filling in the “To:” and “From:”. It’s so hard to re-gift your poor choice of a Gift card when you do that!!! LEAVE IT BLANK!

kezazzamean
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kezazzamean

Shroud of The Avatar doesn’t have more votes because people don’t care about the game. Most people don’t know what it is, and if they do stumble upon it, it is so uninspiring that people forget about it immediately.

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McGuffn

The same is true for birthday and other greeting cards. And if you’re hand delivering don’t sign or lick the envelop either.

pepperzine
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pepperzine

It’s because most people considered it launched when they stop wiping the servers. Thus, it’s not most likely to flop in 2018, it already has.

François Verret
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François Verret

I don’t think games that have been released for several years and are on life support can do anything remotely close to “flopping.” The introduction might say that flop can mean many things, but it should be reserved for games releasing in the near future or that have just launched. As such, Wildstar can’t really flop, although it sure did when it came out, and Star Citizen is indeed the perfect pick.

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MolleaFauss

All the COH clones. And I’m not happy to say it.
They are trying to recreate the same game (in three slightly different ways), that I see too many risks: keep the gameplay faithful to the old title that may feel clumsy compared to what’s around today, too small audience (at the risk of being fragmented following the different titles to be economically sustainable in the long term), some too many similarities that risk attracting a lawsuit if they get successful.

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Chosenxeno .

I think Ship of Heroes will be the one standing when the smoke clears. So I can’t say they will all fail. There will definitely be winners and losers.

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rafael12104

Ah, nothing like a little Pink Floyd to set the mood.

Ok, so, guys… it’s Destiny 2. I mean, at this point, how could it not be Destiny 2?

All of the D2 drama thus far is stuff they should have learned from D1. Yes, even the XP throttling. You can’t say that Bungie/Activision is new to the genre. You can’t say they don’t know what they are doing, quite the opposite in fact.

So… the game will continue bleed players but some whales will remain. And that is exactly why they will not learn a damn thing and flop like fish, they will make money.

You might be thinking that if they turn a profit it would mean they aren’t a “flop.” But you see making a profit is not enough. The game will miss its revenue projections, and, ironically, make Bungie even more desperate to sell shit in their Eververse.

Will the damage done to the Bungie brand and the games reputation be worth it in the long run? No. The scrutiny they will now bear is beyond their wildest fears, I’m afraid.

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agemyth 😩

They will sell the hell out of their DLC/expansions and in two years we will have a Destiny 3 launching at $60+ to reset the hype cycle.

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Lethality

You guys realize Star Citizen has already made more money than most games in this genre ever do, right? From that perspective, it cannot fail – because it’s already successful.

As for gameplay, it seems to be — even at this early stage — delivering on what CR and most backers actually wanted. Very immersive and paced, huge realistic physciallized tactile universe.

No, it won’t come out this or or next or the next :)

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Jed Slater

Yeah, CR and friends won this one, the gamers/backers got shafted….

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McGuffn

In terms of flop or not, it will determine on its reception at/after launch.

EVE Valkyrie was such a success that CCP shut down their VR studio! You see, they obviously achieved perfection with their game so there was no point in making more. And CCP will tell you how great they’re doing. http://massivelyop.com/2017/11/08/eve-evolved-eve-onlines-ccp-games-is-gambling-with-the-livelihoods-of-employees/

I can imagine a scenario where Star Citizen enjoys similar success.

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draugris

It´s successful because they raised a lot of money ? Is that success ? I thought that delivering a product and succeed in selling it would define success ? But they succeeded in luring a lot of people to give them money for fancy drawings, so if you define that as success, there you go.

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Tobasco da Gama

Yeah, this feels like wishful thinking TBH. Especially if SQ42 actually does get out the door in 2018. It doesn’t even need to be great, it just needs to exist and be competent. I think CIG can hit that low mark, and that’s all they need to do to not flop.

CovertOpsCloaking
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CovertOpsCloaking

There’s not a chance in hell that SQ42 releases in 2018.

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Fervor Bliss

Will the $800 ships which all can be made “in game”. Will this lead to Star Citizen = Battlefront 2 needing forever in time to be competitive with those paying cash?

Why will CIG not tell us how long it takes to make a $800 ship ?

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athiev

Imagine the holy hell that would break loose if it turns out to actually in fact be reasonably achievable for normal players to get those ships in game.

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Arktouros

I think most of the Kickstarter games will all produce something. It may not be great, but those are the sole focus of those companies. I mean you can look at Repopulation of all games and the only reason it stopped at all was because of issues with the engine otherwise they still had something. Even then when that didn’t work, they still had something to go with it.

The big ones that gotta worry about shut down or lack of support are the ones at studios with multiple projects. At some point someone up above is going to question if they can get more money return by taking a dev and putting on X instead of Y and that’s how things get shut down.

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Green Dragoon

((Deleted by mod. Please review the commenting code.))

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Sally Bowls

I am not sure “jaded” is the word you meant. Jaded sites would have tired of discussing SC. Whereas the writers here are willing to continue to discuss SC, in spite of its situation and history.

Alyn
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Alyn

money it’s a hit…don’t gimme that do goody do good sh%t!

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rafael12104

Nice. Thanks for this. :)

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David McD

I think despite the hype Sea of Thieves is going to turn out to be a dud. There will be a huge rush but in the end the first-person lock, heavy party requirements and repetitive game play with a real lack of direction in end game will have people looking elsewhere. Then it will hit the point of danger with slow queues due to low pops.

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Lethality

You’re supposed to play with your friends. What gives you idea there are “queues”?

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Mourneuk

So those of us who don’t have gaming friends. or who have friends who game but don’t want to play sea of thieves, should just not be catered to?

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Lethality

In an online game designed to be played by people who know each other, communicate and coordinate? Absolutely not.

This is the problem, not everything is for everyone and making it that way is making them garbage.

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Schmidt.Capela

Actually, while it is meant for groups, it’s being designed to be perfectly playable by random groups of strangers where all communication happens through emotes. Which, mind, seems to be the situation the devs expect most players to face.

On the other hand, it’s supposed to also be playable solo or by duos; one of the ships has as a design requirement that sailing it should be perfectly possible for a single, unassisted player.

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Lethality

That is a late-stage addition not part of the original design… let’s watch how it goes!

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David McD

The fact that MMOs and the ilk have less and less friend groups and more and more people are playing solo. Hence their adding solo boats. At some point I am sure there will be some kind of group finder. But, I could be wrong… it wouldn’t be the first tiem. Or second.

cmdr_cotic
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cmdr_cotic

There’s only one candidate and it won. Well done Star Citizen, here’s hoping to see you flop in 2018 or beyond.

I like the succinctness of Brendan’s comment, no messing around, no other candidates to consider, just straight to the point :)

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Gaz Instone

You hope it flops? Pretty pathetic there sunshine.

cmdr_cotic
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cmdr_cotic

If you can’t read the sarcasm in that first sentence then it’s only you that is acting pathetically, you’re letting your bias cloud your better judgement. It’s a piss-take, a holding a pint in the air and shouting wahey, a tongue in cheek, sarcastic comment.

Lighten up Felicia.

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Lethality

((Deleted by mod. Please review the commenting code.))

CovertOpsCloaking
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CovertOpsCloaking

You could give SC another 10 years and it still wouldn’t have the variety in gameplay that EvE has. They aren’t even in the same league and never will be.

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Lethality

You sure about that?

CovertOpsCloaking
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CovertOpsCloaking

Yes. Feel free to ping me in 10 years time.

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Schmidt.Capela

AFAIK Star Citizen wants to stay well away from territory control gameplay, so for those that like EVE due to that kind of gameplay, Star Citizen isn’t supposed to be a substitute.

Most of the rest should be covered, though, and then some (assuming most of the features either promised early on or that we have seen proof of concept for are actually implemented).

CapnLan
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CapnLan

I had to go with Destiny 2. I just don’t see it recovering from Lockboxitis. I think it’s terminal. Then again I’m probably biased as it left such a bad taste in my mouth. I tastes like failure and general contempt. Bleh.

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rafael12104

Same.

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Koshelkin

Yep, Destiny 2 definitely would have deserved more of a shout-out here.

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Dro Gul

I think SC has enough money that they will get something out. CoE on the other hand? NO CHANCE IN HELL!!

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Jack Pipsam

There’s a purely selfish part of me that wants Star Citizen to be a total disaster just to watch it.
But naturally with so much money and jobs on the line, hopefully it is even half of what they claim.

Yet, also No Man’s Sky.

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T. kuvesi

I know right. For the longest time, I wanted to see WoW crash and burn because I couldn’t afford to pay the subscription fee as a young’un. Now that I can comfortably afford it, I occasionally want to burn some cash on lootboxes and the more expensive games.

wpDiscuz