Massively OP’s Best of 2017 Awards: Most Likely to Flop in 2018 or Beyond

Massively Overpowered’s end-of-the-year 2017 awards continue today with our award for Most Likely to Flop, which was awarded to Star Citizen and WildStar in a tie last year. We’re once again happy to say both games beat our odds, though you be the judge of by how much. This unpleasant category can encompass fringe MMOs as well as unlaunched games, and remember that “flop” can mean lots of things, from outright sunset to financial ruin to simply not living up to insane hype. And we don’t actually want anything to flop!

Don’t forget to cast your own vote in the just-for-fun reader poll at the very end!

The Massively OP staff pick for Most Likely to Flop in 2018 or Beyond is…

STAR CITIZEN

Andrew Ross (@dengarsw): Probably Star Citizen, but that’s assuming it gets released in 2018. I don’t think that’s happening. I’d put Chronicles of Elyria here again, but I’m starting to think it won’t come out this year either, so I’ll include a third option: Dauntless. I want it to do well, but Capcom’s Monster Hunter World has shown me things Dauntless hasn’t even suggested. It’s hard to get psyched for Monster Hunter “lite” when the original’s looking very, very good.

Brendan Drain (@nyphur): Star Citizen.

Brianna Royce (@nbrianna): Star Citizen is the obvious pick here. I think WildStar might make it another year, but I always suspect it’s a coin flip for that game and whatever NCsoft executive makes the call. And I have grave concerns about the health of some of the hypey gankbox indies on the horizon as well as the old-school throwbacks. But yeah, Star Citizen isn’t going to implode, just disappoint, flop in a No Man’s Sky kind of way. We’ll all be old and grey by the time it ever lives up to the hype.

Eliot Lefebvre (@Eliot_Lefebvre): I put Star Citizen here first because let’s be real here, the same things I said about this title last year apply this year, and thus it’s less “this game deserves to win” and more “enjoy this lifetime achievement award for not actually releasing while driving expectations up even further.” This year did seem to show some pretty big cracks in the facade, but nothing has actually changed. So let’s instead talk about Ashes of Creation, which has also managed to drum up an awful lot of hype and money with an awfully small amount to actually show for all of that and some remarkably tone-deaf marketing stunts. My hopes are not high, especially when it’s already fallen into the WildStar-esque cycle of hyping how great it’s going to be while missing the obvious warning signs of what it’s doing wrong.

Justin Olivetti (@Sypster): Devilian. I mean, there are a lot of barely surviving MMOs out there (always have been, really), but I definitely think the writing is on the wall for this unpopular MMOARPG in Trion’s library. The developing studio might be dropping it in the future, so that does not bode well.

Larry Everett (@Shaddoe): Everything that is owned or partially owned by Disney. At this point in the games, Lucasfilm, Disney, Marvel, and anyone connected with that giant media conglomerate have completely lost sight on how to make video games, especially online games. I have lost all confidence in anything they do besides movies. This is sad because Lucasfilm/LucasArts used to make really innovative and groundbreaking games.

MJ Guthrie (@MJ_Guthrie): Unless it adds much more soon, I’d have to say Dauntless. Dauntless is currently still in development and slowly adding features, but its market also has another popular title that is much more fleshed out. There isn’t much to do yet in game: There’s only a few different behemoths, limited weaponry, and horrific in-town lag that I worry will drive its audience away.

Tina Lauro Pollock (@purpletinabeans): I vote for Star Citizen simply because of the weight of expectation that surrounds the title, the way main development progress is sidelined by meeting crowdfunding promises, and my worries for its sustainability with such a convoluted, muddy business model. I can see how difficult it is becoming for the team to deliver on those lofty promises and 2017 has not reassured me at all that they can cope.

Star Citizen took our award for Most Likely to Flop in 2018. What’s your pick?

Reader poll: Which MMORPG is most likely to flop in 2018 or beyond?

  • Star Citizen (54%, 1,010 Votes)
  • Dauntless (2%, 44 Votes)
  • WildStar (6%, 105 Votes)
  • Ashes of Creation (2%, 45 Votes)
  • Everything owned by Disney (4%, 72 Votes)
  • Devilian (2%, 28 Votes)
  • Chronicles of Elyria (2%, 41 Votes)
  • New World (0%, 3 Votes)
  • Dark and Light (1%, 12 Votes)
  • Destiny 2 (5%, 87 Votes)
  • Bless (1%, 14 Votes)
  • Albion Online (2%, 33 Votes)
  • Pantheon (1%, 18 Votes)
  • Shroud of the Avatar (10%, 180 Votes)
  • Camelot Unchained (1%, 27 Votes)
  • Crowfall (1%, 24 Votes)
  • Valiance Online (1%, 10 Votes)
  • City of Titans (1%, 22 Votes)
  • Ship of Heroes (1%, 17 Votes)
  • AIR (1%, 19 Votes)
  • Nothing (1%, 26 Votes)
  • Something else (tell us in the comments, but try not to enjoy it) (1%, 21 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,858

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Poll options include all games nominated plus other games we thought would be worthy.

MOP’S 2017 AWARDS (SO FAR)
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Tim Schäble

My SotA Account got n strike and my post in the official forum got deleted for saying that they are rank 2 in the flop award *clap* good job Börek

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pesko

It’s a shame that this “flop” award can be given for innuendo and old perception alone, with little actually backed up by explanation. The only substantive comment given for the vote is Tina’s and only backed because of the vague definition of flop that allows for it “not living up to insane hype.”

Did any of the people who voted for it to be a flop play SC alpha 3.0? This game continues to show progress to realize its vision. From the start, I’ve stated that I don’t want another half-ass game release that doesn’t do much for the genre or gaming. For the most part, incremental improvement is pretty much all we have received from the corporate game studios because it’s the best recipe for profit. From the start, I wanted a revolutionary game, and from the amount raised, I’m not alone. Yes, the timeline has slipped. Feature creep? Sure. Naive timelines? Probably. Completely redoing systems because of a fetish for perfection? Perhaps. A fraudulent scheme? I absolutely do not believe so, and I challenge anyone to show evidence otherwise. To me, SC would be a flop if it cut its scope just to foolishly meet the expectations of industry experts.

The only reason SC can get the flop award is because there was an expectation to develop and make public a release schedule. Just think about all the other flop-worthy games in development that might be out there that don’t have to tell anyone anything outside of their corporate overlords.

Lastly, when I originally backed this site, I had hoped that the site would be free of passing judgment on games based on prevailing gaming-culture sentiment and would care to look a little deeper, free of innuendo. Largely, this has been the case, but in this situation, it seems like “gee, everybody likes to make fun of Star Citizen, let’s do that, too!”

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Joe Blobers

A quick snapshot do allow to detect CIG or SC names here and there. I won’t even bother reading each 155 comments. Some do provide the answer that match their past position, whatever the future can be.
The “Flop” potential is equal to the “collapse” certainty…. = zero.
CIG do keep hiring, they keep receiving new pledges and even if pledges do drop by half, they do have private investors and a substantial bucket of cash.
2018 is not for CIG a year of flop but a year of bugs fixing, performance improvement, new contents (jobs and planets)… hence more Backers.

In short, CIG is as close of a flop than NMS to be an alternative option to BF4… :)

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TotalCowage .

2018 or beyond? Star Citizen, but it won’t be in 2018 unless there’s something disastrous hidden in the immediate financials.

The problem is, the media has largely ignored crowd funding stories, and I’ve not heard any in depth critical coverage of SC since Kotaku’s investigation in September 2016. It’s either shameless boostering or just a general, not-gonna-stick-my-head-out-on-this suspicion… So I can’t honestly consider myself informed about how healthy the project really is. All I can say is that with the sums they’ve taken in, and continue to get, I think this drama will just drag on and on…

But Shroud of the Avatar? Having foolishly backed that myself, and thus following it very closely… That’s the one that got my vote.

It’s already been technically launched for more than a year. The details recently discovered with their Russian publisher, BlackSun, indicate they’d been planning to move the game to F2P as far back as 2015. They’ve already driven off most of the former backers, the F2P systems haven’t brought many newer ones in, and permanent fundraising combined with a spectacularly toxic community means it’s an unbelievably unappealing product to try and sell.

But just like Star Citizen, as long as the Whales continue to buy in the Add On Store, they’ll keep it chugging along. So… “launched” in March, but I expect it to be moved to maintenance mode, with no more true development before the year is out. You’ll never see Episode 2, much less the stated 5, despite funding those at Kickstarter. You’ll be lucky to see the physical rewards still outstanding… those too are going to have to come out of post F2P profits, of which I can’t see too many until they stop bothering updating the game.

Closed in 2018 though? Possible. “Ultimate Collector”, their previous title was closed in under a year from it’s launch. Portalarium aren’t necessarily shy about cutting and running. But never, ever underestimate the amount of money people are willing to sink into avoiding admitting the truth to themselves. So this one may drag on and on too…

kezazzamean
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kezazzamean

I don’t think Shroud of The Avatar will close in 2018. I do believe it will go into survival mode (if it isn’t pretty much at that state already). Keeping a skeleton crew afloat by netting in the remaining whales can keep the game open for awhile… Until they find their next scam to go after.

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Armsman

((Deleted by mod. Please review the commenting code.))

deekay_plus
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Patreon Donor
deekay_plus

you have to be really obtuse to not know what he means when he says nothing has really changed this year”

and it hasn’t in the sense he’s clearly talking about. if anything it’s worse than previous years.

and that is, feature creepy sales on a tight schedule while delays mount despite the weekly marketting video spam assuring us it’s right around the corner for A WHOLE YEAR.

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Tiresias

I think it’s harsh to say that Star Citizen is going to flop, especially when what is available to play right now is so much fun.

I certainly don’t think that it’s going to live up to the hype, but then again… what has?

I am super-skeptical of Shroud of the Avatar right now.

Also, Destiny 2 has one more chance to save itself. If the next DLC isn’t amazing, and if they don’t fix some broken game systems between now and then, it will never recover and Destiny 3 won’t ever exist.

cmdr_cotic
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cmdr_cotic

Isn’t that what they said in the opening paragraph though?

…and remember that “flop” can mean lots of things, from outright sunset to financial ruin to simply not living up to insane hype.

Reader
Skyrant

especially when what is available to play right now is so much fun.

Have we been playing the same PTU? I would not call below 30 FPS fun, most of the time you are lucky to get 15 FPS. I would not call constant crashes fun, dying because the game engine and physics are broken, unable to complete any mission because the chance you discover one of the literally thousands of bugs is pretty much guaranteed.

FUN, Surely not.

Reader
Jonny Sage

The latest FPS certainly sucks, but before that, I hopped into my ship, flew to a planet, got out and walked around. That was unique. And its only Alpha. No where to go but up.

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shear

Yeah as unique as no man’s sky.

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Jonny Sage

Fine. I also hopped in someone elses ship and flew in a squad to the planet and we all got out. Do that in your solo game.

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shear

Not mine I don’t play it.
“I also hopped in someone elses ship and flew in a squad to the planet and we all got out.”

Are you kidding me? That’s revolutionary gameplay? You all flew to a planet and got out? Was there anything interesting to do on the planet? Fucking lol.

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Kickstarter Donor
mistressbrazen

While I don’t support what CIG is doing, I don’t think SC will flop. What gets released in 2018 won’t be big enough to represent the bulk of the project so I think the backers will hang in. Whatever is released as I said earlier this week, will have supporters and haters. But over all, I think they will keep creeping along. I said whatever New World puts out, but then I realized it’s unlikely they will get anything out the door in 2018. I think all 3 CoH successors are safe for 2018, it’s 2019 where the wheat and chafe will be separated. Destiny 2 i s getting lots of bad press, but I feel bad voting for it because I don’t play that or the other games on the list. Poor Wildstar. I wanted to like that so badly, but I do hope it manages to hang on another year, at least for the folks who still like playing it.

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Melissa McDonald

I don’t see any way a “finished, Retail” version of Star Citizen launches in 2018. I think its ultimate reality is in a product that can’t possibly live up to the hopes and dreams of the player community, and also, the marketing coming from the game itself. We go through this fairly routinely – a game is announced, we see screenshots, our minds fill in the rest, and can be stoked by the game devs/owners/publishers with the proper amount of sauce.

Reality will be a video game with the same limits most of them have. Nice graphics. Etc.

Reader
Cosmic Cleric

Also, a bonus for us gamers will be having a game that does NOT come from a publisher, but from developers directly.

Reader
Chris Walker

Star Citizen has a chance to flop, although I think it has enough support to keep it afloat.

5seconds2urheart
Reader
5seconds2urheart

I have a feeling EVE online will be shut down this year. The F2P this was a flop, selling skill injections reeked of desperation, them laying off the whole CM team and all the financial issues. The game is ancient and it’s best days are far behind it.

Reader
Chris Walker

I think EVE lasts a *minimum* of 3-4 more years. As “ancient” as the game is in MMO years, visually it’s still quite nice, its massiveness is unmatched, and its player-created emergent gameplay remains unique in the industry. Plus, your observations seem more opinion than fact, except for them laying off much of the community team (although not all of them as you claim).

5seconds2urheart
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5seconds2urheart

Player created emergent gameplay. Fancy way to say role playing. People have been doing that for decades. It’s about as unique as…well it isn’t unique at all. I don’t need facts to justify my opinion. It’s an opinion.

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Skyrant

Player created emergent gameplay. Fancy way to say role playing.

Someone clearly has no idea what he is talking about and never played EVE Online. EVE is possibly the furthest you can get away from role playing possible.