Massively Overthinking: Our MMO predictions for 2018

With 2017 drawing to a close and 2018 rushing up to meet us, the Massively OP team has regrouped for another round of bold and goofy predictions for the year ahead. We’re feeling pretty good after our fairly successful predictions from last year! What’s in store for the MMO genre next year? Here’s what we think.

Andrew Ross (@dengarsw): OK, this year, for sure, Star Citizen will finally come out, but again, it can’t live up to the hype. It may be serviceable at best. Chronicles of Elyria may get its MUD online, but I can’t imagine much more than more demos of the MMO proper.

Daybreak will retire Planetside 2 because it exists but isn’t making bank. H1Z1 (both versions) won’t make any major comebacks as the survival genre’s time is passing. Yes, the arena play style for PlayerUnknown’s Battleground is up, but Daybreak’s baby’s probably too old already and losing its following. Warner Bros (which sadly owns Turbine) will continue to make bad mobile titles of popular IPs and I’ll continue crying myself to sleep knowing they own the rights to Asheron’s Call but won’t do anything with it (please, please Santa, let this be the one thing I’m wrong about!).

World of Warcraft’s next expansion will exist, but not do as well as the previous ones as the mighty Titan has fallen, but people will still come back and enjoy it for a month or so before waiting for another major update while they play other games.

Destiny 2 will not do well. Bungie will continue to struggle to make it cool again, but lighting seems to have escaped the bottle. Amazon may be working on games, but I don’t think we’ll see anything from them this year.

Current MMO darlings Elder Scrolls Online and Final Fantasy XIV will do well enough this year. ESO will probably stumble with some lockbox thing because, let’s face it, all games with lockboxes do this, so doing it at least once this year is bound to happen. On the other hand, FFXIV will put something overpriced in their own shop, but most likely just a vanity item and not something game breaking like a ghillie suit of ganking goodness.

VR may continue to see a push on console and mobile, but I think its PC time (especially for MMO) won’t see any major renewal outside of maybe whatever work’s done on the Sword Art Online game. Speaking of mobile, yeah, expect more mobile MMOs, especially from Asia, but at this point, don’t expect them to “get” the western market yet. I’m actually still struggling with it myself!

Nintendo will continue to skirt the edge between multiplayer games with social media community events tying into larger narratives and actual MMO but still refuse to commit to making the latter. Pokemon Go, in particular, will continue testing the waters. Gen 3 legendaries actually won’t shake up the meta that much, and I really believe Niantic will get the missing mythic Pokemon (like Mew and Celebi) out, but like Mewtwo, the release will probably be not what players expect, especially as distribution of passes and spawns remains something Niantic tries to better understand. Towards the summer, the release Generation 4 will maybe actually herald either 1v1 PvP or pokemon trading/breeding in some limited scope. If I’m being super optimistic, Niantic will finally be able to tie the game in with some kind of social media and/or messenger to make the game easier for communicating and finding play partners. Again, something will go wrong, probably something of ethical consequence, but I’m hoping it’s small enough that I’m finally able to recommend the game for MMO fans and not just those looking to combine online gaming with reality.

Brianna Royce (@nbrianna, blog): We will get a trickle of info about New World, but it’ll become clearer that it won’t be a sandbox MMORPG and will look a lot more like PUBG than originally planned. Ironically, I don’t think we’ll still be talking much about PUBG in the west a year from now.

World of Warcraft’s expansion will do much better than Legion. We won’t see Classic in 2018, however (fall 2019 is my bet). Overwatch’s e-sports push seems like a longshot to me, but I’m sure that if and when it capsizes, someone will be walking away with a ton of cash and call it a win.

NCsoft will leak news about Guild Wars 2’s next expansion, starting the whole cycle again. WildStar will somehow manage to get another year of life. I’ll try this one again: WildStar announces console plans, and the Blade & Soul console launch will be a windfall for the company.

Definitely think we’ll see more companies grudgingly showing transparency on lockboxes and trying to head off legislation (which will come anyway) by playing nicely while the teacher’s watching.

Destiny 2 won’t recover, in spite of popular DLC, and Bungie will move on to the next thing. Sea of Thieves, on the other hand, will rope in a ton of MMORPG players.

Star Citizen will eventually get alpha 3.0 out the door in March. It’ll settle that lawsuit by summer. It won’t launch, and the next phase it does promise also won’t launch next year.

Elder Scrolls Online will announce a new chapter. It and Black Desert will vie for dominance next year.

Crowfall will finally launch and do pretty well, but not a blockbuster. Camelot Unchained will finally roll into beta one by late spring. Ashes of Creation trucks along in quiet testing but doesn’t make any bold moves in 2018. Ship of Heroes will also find moderate success, beating the other superhero MMOs to a truly playable early access.

Standing Stone will hang in there. Daybreak too, but H1Z1 will still not officially launch, and Parabolic will be an Overwatch clone. Funcom will continue tinkering on the games it maintenance-moded and fall back on Secret World Legends content. Trion will put RIFT on console. Hilmar Petursson will exit CCP and EVE will hover as it does now. BioWare won’t get any bounce off The Last Jedi for SWTOR and continue its anemic updates.

Cryptic will cancel the Magic MMO it’s working on, but otherwise, PWE does fine with its whole stable.

The F2P pushes for Ultima Online and Dark Age of Camelot will make mainstream news for a day but not really pull in new players in the long haul.

If The Lineage (Lineage Eternal) and Lost Ark do finally launch, they won’t have nearly the impact in the west that they did years ago when first announced. A:IR will not make 2018.

Eliot Lefebvre (@Eliot_Lefebvre, blog): World of Warcraft: Battle for Azeroth releases in early November after people repeatedly predict incorrect earlier dates for it. Island expeditions and warfronts are almost immediately popular (although there are balance issues), while dungeons and raids notice a bit of a downturn. It’s too early to tell how the game is doing by the end of the year, but there’s a fair amount of, “Wow, I thought it was a weak premise, but the actual gameplay is surprisingly good.”

World of Warcraft: Classic servers arrive midway through the year. They see a brief population surge, followed by a whole lot of people swiftly leaving while claiming that the servers ere somehow mismanaged because they wanted something other than the actual true-to-vanilla servers. It’s because of bugs/balance/something other than the actual inconvenience, definitely. In a darkened room, a man chuckles, lights a cigar, and whispers, “You think you want it, but you don’t.” Somewhere in the distance, a wolf howls.

Final Fantasy XIV continues to update on a reliable schedule and reveals its third expansion in November, bringing players either to the southern or western continent. It knows what it’s doing and continues to do it well.

Guild Wars 2 starts the year out strong, but a few controversial business decisions hit in the middle of the year and update cadence slows down significantly through the later months. It’s still better than life was with Heart of Thorns.

EVE Online spends the year mostly in recovery mode; rather than CCP spinning out more big and expensive projects, it focuses on doubling down with its existing content. Things are looking up more toward the end of the year, although there’s a certain degree of player apprehension focused around the game’s financial health.

Cryptic reveals details on its Magic: the Gathering MMO, with release scheduled for late 2018 or early 2019. People who love Cryptic’s other games are going to enjoy it, and it’ll bring in some new blood. It will still feature some obtrusive lockbox stuff.

Star Citizen’s 3.0 issues prove to be extremely deep-seated and keep hampering the game as more and more backlash materializes through more obscure funding methods (like, stuff that makes the land sales seem downright prosaic). Squadron 42 is, at best, in an early test state at the end of the year; whether or not it is marketed as a launch will depend on too many factors to examine here.

WildStar continues to limp along with no real updates, waiting for the actual shutdown. (That might happen next year, actually, but I’m tired of guessing about when.)

The Elder Scrolls Online has two major updates. One is well-received and in the same vein as the stuff that we’ve had over the past two years; the other is… less so. One step forward and one stumble, then.

Ascent: Infinite Realm launches to some mixed responses at first, gets some polish passes, and is looking very healthy as it starts testing in the west. Black Desert continues to grow and expand, with another big landscape update to help spur more player interaction. TERA does all right on consoles, but it shows its age. A few more import MMOs open, a few more close, as it always has been.

Daybreak continues to flail around looking for a hit vaguely like H1Z1 before PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds existed, ultimately being unsuccessful. PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds falters a bit as well once the novelty wears off, but Daybreak makes it clear that things don’t really fully materialize. By the end of the year, H1Z1 appears to be in real trouble.

Amazon’s game studio continues to put out a grand total of nothing. Whee.

Destiny 2 has a minor revival mid-year as its underlying issues finally start to be patched out and fixed, but there’s still no talk about Destiny 3 or even rumors of same. The game finds its niche as it becomes more convincingly MMO-esque.

We get at least one surprising new title announced that isn’t a Kickstarted probably-not-happening indie that promises tons of backward-looking systems. Speaking of that group, at least one of the well-known smaller titles (like Chronicles of Elyria, Saga of Lucimia, City of Titans, et al.) winds up shutting down altogether. (It’s happened before.)

Next year sees some shakeups across the genre, with some well-known titles shutting down and some others stepping into places of renewed prominence. We also see more titles embracing the pseudo-MMO aspect that has become far more common in ostensibly single-player titles, including at least one title that actually provides an interesting question of whether or not it really is an MMO or just close to one.

I will eat a burrito bowl.

Justin Olivetti (@Sypster, blog): There is never a time of year that I make myself out to be so foolish as when I try to predict what’s going to happen in this industry over the next 12 months. That said, I’m comfortable being foolish, so here are some thoughts.

Amazon’s New World will eventually be proven to be vaporware, but John Smedley’s team is going to come out with a neat little MMO thing that gets us excited in his visions again. Ashes of Creation and Crowfall are going to pick up serious steam this year and begin to generate a ton of buzz. World of Warcraft is going to have a strong year based on the new expansion and classic server buzz, but it won’t see the typical expansion high based on the apathy levels of Battle for Azeroth’s announcements.

I think we’ll see a winnowing of the City of Heroes successors, and that Ship of Heroes will be the game to come out on top of that effort. Daybreak’s going to announce a new EverQuest title, but it won’t be what we expect. Smaller studios, like SSG and Broadsword, are going to continue to tread water with interesting expansions and updates for their games that won’t quite recapture former glory.

We’re definitely going to see far fewer new MOBAs and far more “battle royale” shooters, because copycatting is a constant.

Camelot Unchained is going to start its long-awaited beta test in June. Shroud of the Avatar’s launch will be a non-event for most gamers. Star Citizen will get alpha 3.0 out… and it will be plagued with issues.

Kickstarter won’t be a thing of the past, either; 2018 will get not one, but two major MMO crowdfunding projects that stir up buzz.

I’m going to call it: This is the year that WildStar will shut down. And that will be a shame. Oh, and I’ll lose myself in Sea of Thieves for about two months straight.

MJ Guthrie (@MJ_Guthrie, blog): We all know by now that I don’t do predictions right? But I will give it the old Christmas spirit… or something like that!

1) Season 2 of Secret World Legends will launch and it will be glorious! Veterans and new players alike will be frothing at the mouth wanting more because cliffhangers will be involved. Something shocking happens with a well-known/beloved NPC.

2) Survival sandboxes will continue to be a popular design choice, but companies will have to start getting more creative with unique hooks to distinguish their game from the massive sea of similar titles.

3) Following the very, very delayed release of ARK’s third DLC (which will again break the base game), Wildcard announces a new game that will be going to early access.

4) A handful of games will actually launch launch, surprising players who all thought Early Access actually means launch. One game will completely forgo Early Access and paid betas, shocking the industry and endearing itself to fans.

5) At least one more developer/game will jump on the fan convention bandwagon (as more should!) and it will an awesome time to hang with devs and fans. At least one special announcement will be made there!

6) The EverQuest franchise will have a major closing scare (loss of major dev, legal troubles by by parent company?), but it will make it through to 2019.

7) Warframe will take another long stride into MMOness and be “discovered” by more MMO players (but it will still not officially launch =P).

8) I will be totally surprised by a new game that I will love in a genre I’d have never expected.

9) Instead of lessening, lockboxes will find their way into even more single-player and co-op games — even TV shows and streamin services! New “no lootboxes” lootbox mechanics will be introduced.

10) Mo’s secret relationship finally comes to light!

Bonus: Nothing will even come remotely close to having as feature-rich a virtual world as SWG, and Bree and I will lament that fact no less than 142 times.

Your turn!

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55 Comments on "Massively Overthinking: Our MMO predictions for 2018"

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Oleg Chebeneev

Well, some predictions already failed lol. Like Bree’s claim SC 3.0 will release in march 2018. Nope, already happened. Also there is basically zero chance for Lost Ark to release in the west in 2018 with developer not yet having deals with western publishers and asian launch most likely happening in the second half of the year (if we are lucky).

I’ll drop my 2 cents about what will happen in 2018:
SC – we gonna see alot of SQ42 on next Citizencon but it wont release in 2018. As far as PU goes, we’ll have the next major patch that will add almost whole Stanton system besides one planet that they wont be able to finish in time (probably Microtech). But we’ll see new cool mechanics added like mining, info running, salvaging. Game passes through 200 mil before December 31. As for lawsuit, they gonna clear it before going to court and CryTek recieves some money and wont know how much.

WoW: BfA – about the same sales as Legion and same amount of players. There will be noticable influx of people after they launch level scaling in Jan or Feb 2018. Nothing else to add here.

Lost Ark – launches in Asia and becomes a smashing hit. Western gamers will beg for western release but will have to wait till 2019.

Project PL aka Lineage Eternal – wont risk to compete with LA in 2018 and delays launch to 2019. But this wont help them and game will be always overshadowed by LA. We will also see more isometric MMOs from Asia appearing and it will be come a new trend.

Monster Hunter World – huge success, millions of copies sold. Constantly discussed in MMO community.

Anthem – I feel like this game can become the redeeming turning point for Bioware. Everyone is pissed at them now but Anthem looks incredible and after it launches in 2018 everyone will speak highly about Bioware again.

City of Thieves – will also be a success and fun MMO to play for few months. But it wont have enough content for most players to last long.

Camelot Unchained – will launch “beta” which will look like pre-alpha and feel like its still at least 3 years away from being finished. Fans will praise “potential”, I will keep being unimpressed.

Pantheon – will just be in development throught 2018 and will start looking nice visually. But I dont see them doing public release any time soon. Maybe early access for biggest whales.

Shroud of Avatar – will launch as planned in March. Noone will care.

Ashes of Creation – will keep proving its mediocrity.

Crowfall – launches in 2018 and flops.

Wildstar – I dont think it will shut down in 2018 although I wouldnt be surprised. They probably keep it on life support and drop minor updates.

LoTRO – will be milking Mordor throught 2018 and part of 2019. Devs wont step on the path of creating “outside movie trilogy” content cuz its too hard for them. Well, not until they milked everything they know dry.

TESO, FF14, SWToR, GW2 – will keep throwing content patches that only fans care about.

EVE Online – new big war happens that goes all over MMO news. Well, thats wishful thinking, but possible. Population declines abit.

Funcom announces a new game. Small one like The Park. They seem to like trying to reap money with minor effort. Conan Exiles releases and remains their biggest golden goose.

We learn more about Age of Wushu 2 and it will be absolutely awesome.

The biggest prediction is about new Blizzard’s title. They might announce it at Blizzcon’2018 and it will be either PUBG type game in sci-fi setting (most likely scenario) or their risky VR experiment that will look awesome and everyone looses their mind.

I also feel like 2018 will be a big year for VR with the first AAA VR projects being announced and more big companies joining VR race.

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Ryan Allgood

Ship of Heroes really needs to change their name. >< Not a prediction, just a suggestion.

I hope they do well, but like…it's going to be interesting trying to get people into it.

"Hey, have you heard about that MMO Ship of Heroes? It looks pretty good."

"Oh, is that the pirate MMO?"

"Um…no…"

"Oh okay, it's one of the spaceship ones, I think I remember hearing about that."

"Actually…no, it's a superhero MMO…"

"Ohhhhh…I thought you said *Ship* of Heroes…what did you actually say?"

"…Ship of Heroes."

Nathaniel Downes
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Nathaniel Downes

Finding the right name is a PITA. I know City of Titans went through several before we picked one. (Super Human, Ascendant Online, The Phoenix Project, Titan City Online, for examples of names we almost went with)

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Tobasco da Gama

I like Bree’s theory about New World being quietly turned into a battle royale game. It’s exactly the right level of cynicism to have a chance at being correct.

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johnwillo

At least one MMO will launch and then, thirty days later, launch a Classic Edition based on the one-month old launch version. Players will tell them that they didn’t get the classic version right. Third world pirate emulators will pop up everywhere, with mixed success.

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Bryan Correll

Star Citizen will not launch, but will throw out some more ‘playable’ chunks. Chris Roberts will become increasingly Howard Hughes-like.

Brendan Drain will EVE online. Yes, it’s a verb now.

One of the CoH successors will make a big break ahead of the pack and become the one game most seen as CoH’s “true” heir. It’s not clear which game it will be, but it won’t be Heroes and Villains.

Andrew Ross will get lost in the woods for three days trying to track down a rumored rare pokemon.

Wildstar will continue to operate with a low profile as NCSoft has forgotten they didn’t already close it.

Melissa McDonald will mysteriously disappear for several months only to reappear bearing news of an exciting virtual world she has been exploring.

Loot boxes will continue to plague the industry, but attempts will be made by several publishers to rebrand them without making any real changes to the mechanics.

Schlag Sweetleaf will announce that image memes are passé and that he will be redirecting his creative energies toward interpretive dance.

Eliot Lefebvre will contract E. Coli from a burrito bowl. This will not, however, deter him from eating future burrito bowls.

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Cosmic Cleric

Wildstar will continue to operate with a low profile as NCSoft has forgotten they didn’t already close it.

Ok, this made me laugh. Thank you!

Andrew Ross
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Andrew Ross

HEY! How did you know about my knack for getting lost in meatspace!?

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Bryan Correll

I just assumed it happens to all Pokémon Go players at some point.

Nathaniel Downes
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Nathaniel Downes

I will admit a bit of amusement at some of these predictions. How about I give one:

I predict that it will be a very good year for gamers. Whatever happens, this is the year that innovation arrives on many fronts. From the CoH successors, to Project Gorgon, to Camelot Unchained, to Star Citizen, to Crowfall, to Ashes of Creation, the gamers themselves have created 2018. I stand in awe of your power.

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mistressbrazen

It’s telling isn’t it that the players do not share the same hopeful outlook as the developers. If at least some of you would deliver a good, playable game in 2018 maybe our faith can be restored a bit.

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Alex Malone

2018 will be another year of stagnation for the MMO genre.

* ESO, WoW and FFXIV will continue to plod along with regular updates and healthy communities, but nothing ground breaking. Their continued success is more to do with lack of competition rather than intrinsic awesomeness.

* WildStar will shut down.

* WoW classic server will launch 4 months before the new expansion. This will give blizzard a boost to income for those 4 months and then just as most people are getting bored, the new expansion hits to drag them back in. Classic server will be moderately successful.

* A couple of crowd-funded MMOs will release. They will all be shit. It will finally sink in that you cannot build an MMO with more features than a AAA MMO on a tiny budget. They will each do 1 or 2 things well, but the overall experience will be poor.

* Camelot Unchained will move into beta testing and possibly even release Dec 18. This will be the game that finally inspires change. The CUBE system will show the way forwards in terms of building in the world, their bespoke engine will prove that massively-multiplayer actually means something (1000+ player battles! woot!) and it will be the first game to successfully use horizontal progression. It will be moderately successful in its own right (~75k subscribers)

* Amazon’s New World will not be an MMO. It will be a survival sandbox.

As you may be able to tell, I’m resting all of my MMO hopes and dreams on CU, so I’m probably setting myself up to be disappointed. But, the genre as it is today sucks for a player like me, so it can only get better.

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Tia Nadiezja

I don’t think that, with WotC such a lucrative potential source of licenses and Sword Coast Legends having failed and closed, either WotC or Cryptic can afford not to release Magic. Especially since WotC is in the middle of relaunching Magic’s entire digital existence. Magic will come out.

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Sally Bowls

GW2: IDK about starts the year out strong. We will know more in Feb when we find out how big Q4 is. IDK about expansion hints next year; they really need to ship one next year, but if they are on a two year pace, and continue the no hype/promotion strategy of PoF, then leaks may be more Q1 ’19 than ’18.

NW: MMO from Amazon was the electrifying hope. But I think trends mean it will be far closer to PUBG than an MMO.

BDO: will continue to do well but its “domination” will be more in terms of mentions here rather than revenue. I don’t see it making many top-10 list from market research firms.

EVE: SSDD – no growth but the decline is slow

SC: who cares? It may launch and do well (but not in ’18) But I currently see it more as a parody or tragedy of game development than something to be taken seriously.

DBG: a misfortune would not be a surprise but ’18 is probably just same old, but at somewhat lower revenue levels.

Assuming CU just hits beta but does not launch, I predict the number of successful crowd-funded MMOS, from the beginning of time through the end of the 2018, will remain zero.

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Darthbawl

1. Half Life 3 confirmed. *ducks for cover*

2. We [finally] see MJ dabble in the WOW universe. *digs foxhole and jumps in*

MJ Guthrie
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MJ Guthrie

We know one of those will never happen!

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Daniel Miller

Well I waited til most people posted. And I read it all. These people have a few points but most are just foolish. They left out so many games.

FFXI will go mobil
Air will launch and well. As someone who played G star, and whom has an English staff and DBO/Tera, they are not amatures

Soul worker will launch by first quarter

Peroa of Chronicles will launch and do well.

These past three were not even mentioned but all will be heavyweights.

Project Z that China game, is up in the air, Will be crap, but what else do you expect from a China game.

Camelot unchained will launch and it will be ok, not grand, but what game s at launch. Most take 18-24 months after launch. There time frame is not bad. There dev has always communicated well.

CoE, well it may launch but who knows it take a long time even after launch to retain a playerbase

Lost Ark will launch in Korea, come out of beta

http://astellia.nexon.com/main/index This game will launch or CBT/Beta by end of 2018

AoC will swindle people out of cash before a product has been played by the masses

Crowfall will be the game of the month then fade in six months.

Bless will launch by end of the year. Unsure how it will do, but launch it will.

Dual Universe will launch and it be a massive hit

Asia will anounce 2-3 new titles to wow people.

AA will get a HD version

ESO/FFXIV/GW2 WOW will maybe have an expansion but nothing new beyond that

So yeah, I think my predictions outdo any fromthe posters above.

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Melissa McDonald

My dad can beat up your dad.

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Banur

1) Daybreak will sell the EverQuest franchise and the new owners will announce a brand new AAA EQ game. Classic EverQuest will be put in maintenance mode by its new owners. EQII will be shut down. Daybreak will use the cash from the sale of EverQuest to fund a MMO-esque WWE game.

2) BDO and FFIV will both announce digital card games.

3) A new 5E-based D&D AAA game will be announced.

4) The Feds will announce that they are investigating financial practices at Cloud Imperium. The case will be dropped with Roberts offers the investigating agents free ships and land grants.

5) None of the kickstarted games releasing in 2018 will meet expectations.

6) Pantheon will commit to launching in 2021. Early access will cost 5 grand.

7) Fantasy Flight Interactive will announce a GoT digital card game to go along with LotR.

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Patrick Dougherty

I never knew I wanted a wrestling MMO until just this moment.

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Melissa McDonald

1) Black Desert will have a rich 2018. Lots of content, new classes, and publish in several new markets
2) Star Citizen won’t release anything more than some “modules” you can sample but no PU, nothing that sews it all together into a coherent game. Backers will double-down, haters will continue to ridicule it.
3) There will definitely be a game that will rise up to grab everyone’s attention, but which one, I do not know. Maybe Dual Universe.
4) Wild West Online will hit beta and be nearly ready by end of 2018.
5) Elite Dangerous will continue to add content and quietly gather more loyal followers – the Anti-EVE – including leeching players from EVE, and those who wish for Star Citizen, but can’t have it.
6) There will be more console ports of titles we are already familiar with.
7) The lootbox/lockbox situation won’t get any better despite attempts to legislate it, they will persist.
8) Amazon’s Lord of the Rings TV show will cause the announcement of a new Rings game, but it won’t be like LOTRO. Probably more like Battlefront II.
9) Linden Labs’ Project Sansar will start to get some good press and notice as people begin making VR experiences there in earnest.
10) If we don’t get into a war with North Korea, there will be a game that simulates it.

deekay_plus
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deekay_plus

i have high hopes for wwo too. tho they need to flesh out pve and mobs and questing before my guildies will be down for it. but they do have some interest based on my streams and videos. :P

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Chosenxeno .

“Ascent: Infinite Realm launches to some mixed responses at first, gets some polish passes, and is looking very healthy as it starts testing in the west”.

This is one I believe as well. But it’s solely based on payment model. People can whine about Tab until their blue in the face but A:IR has something. I just love how a game called A:IR just seemed to appear out of thin AIR! LOL

Bless will also do a lot better than people think. It could be a Black Desert for people that want Open World PVP and Raids. The lack of traditional PVE in BDO has kept a lot of people from really digging in to Black Desert. I like to burn people asses about Black Desert but it clearly has something. The game is alway packed when I log in.

Crowfall will be an abysmal failure.

Ashes will not release but it will have the most hype going into 2019.

An IP that we never thought of as being able to inspire a MMO will, and it will be glorious.

Bonus: Pantheon decides to add Instances thereby making their game playable for me in late 2019 early 2020.(LOL I can’t help it. It’s the only thing keeping me out. VR Plzz *BibleThump*)

deekay_plus
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deekay_plus

my few predicitions:

star citizen will continue the years ongoing paradigm of on time and regular and feature creeping concept sales in the face of milestone delays they stay quiet about until well after the deadlines are passed.

wildstar will surprise us for another year by staying open and having a content update or two.

the next ncsoft quarterly report will show another dissapointing gw2 expansion launch revenue for the quarter. this will be rationalized and swept under the rug by fans, as well as the progressively record low revenue in quarterly revenue for the game for the coming year as the game slips further below where ncsoft stopped reporting on wildstar revenues.

ashes of creation will do some kidn of open for all backers without nda test environment. it will look better than expected.

dual universe will beat star citizen to teh punch in a big way. people will then rage about it’s revenue model being pay2win. people will still pretend star citizen is not pay2win.

destiny 2 will slowly get to a point where fans like it much the same story as d1.

pubg will continue to gain popularity which reddit will continue to hate with progressively out of date and unreflective of the reality of the game memes.

gta5 will continue to be a top seller with continued dlc drops for online and reddit will continue to moan about that too in ways that havne’t been true since it was still getting updates on 360 and ps3.

rdr2 will come out and will sell gangbusters. the online will come out a month later and the equivelant of shark cards will sell gangbusters. everyone will be in love except reddit who don’t play the game but will talk about it weekly for easy internet points. a pc version will be announced between sp launch and online launch.

cu will finally hit beta and steam through nda dropped testing phase. mmo vets will be impressed by high frames rates in mass pvp battles. tho some will dissent and claim they got smooth 60fps+ in daoc despite evidence to the contrary.

albion will close down sometime after the ios app makes it to the app store in full function.

blizzard announced a new pseudo mmo overwatch spinoff with a glitzy CGI trailer at blizzcon. everyone and their grandmother speculates what it means and blizz doesn’t say. but eventually it ends up being something like gtao but in true to blizz fashion.

idea fabrik closes shop due to lack of engine partnerships revenue and complete lack of repopulation sales. no one is surprised but the 15 people still playing and defending the company.

pepperzine
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pepperzine

Here we go!

1.) WoW’s new expansion will do fine, partially due to the normal buzz of WoW expansions, but also due to them announcing that you must purchase the current expansion to be able to play classic WoW.

2.) Classic WoW will do well despite the naysayers. It will have a stable population that will be contributing money to Blizzard’s coffers which they would not have gotten from these players otherwise. Overall, for a low effort and low expense project it will be considered a success.

3.) SWTOR population will dwindle more. Content will come out as a trickle but the developers will try to entice players to replay the same content they’ve beaten multiple times already by adding a new race.

4.) Zenimax will announce they are porting ESO to PS VR as the first VR MMORPG after the review of boosted sales of VR from the holiday season are clear, and it can be seen that Skyrim VR had a significant role in their increase.

5.) Path of Exile will continue it’s cadenza of content releases and remain the powerhouse of ARPG while Diablo 3 officially goes into maintenance mode.

6.) BDO, GW 2, and FFXIV all maintain their status quo with several updates that invigorate their current playerbases, but nothing ground breaking.

7.) Wildstar finally gets laid to rest by NCsoft.

8.) Ship of Heroes is the first city of heroes successor to start closed beta, causing City of Titan and Valiance Online to merge their efforts into one title (I know, not likely, but I wish!).

9.) Maplestory 2 gets localized to the west.

10.) TERA will launch it’s console port and get a lot of attention becoming a highly recommended console mmorpg, that is until people catch on to their endgame cash shop mechanics which cause an uproar of p2w and lockbox controversies, becoming the biggest lockbox controversy of 2018.

11.) Chronicles of Elyria and Ashes of Creation, will continue whale hunting while Ashes of Creation is the only one that actually delivers on any notable gameplay footage.

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andrew saunders

I think in the EU there will be legislation on lock boxes and loot crates that developers will have to adhere to the same laws that online gambling sites do now .

The Star Citizen lawsuit is going to be the big story of 2018 . I have my doubts somehow it will be settled out of court . I have read elsewhere the legal firm that Crytek have employed is the same one the successfully sued Oculus Rift for 500 million , does anyone know if this is accurate ? because if it is I think they will pursue and win a payout from CIG in the 10’s of millions .

While we are on the subject I think Andrew Ross is over optimistic ( putting it mildly ) to think there is any chance of SC releasing in 2018. They probably will get 3.0 sometime out in the first half of the year but I think it will be closer to the summer .

I think there is a possibility we may see the WoW classic servers launch at the same time as the new expansion in the later half of 2018 . The reason I think this may happen is because the classic servers might require a purchase of the new expansion to access them and that is a payday Blizzard will not want to miss out on .

I think there is a good chance plans for a new Star Wars and a new Marvel universe mmo will be announced . After that the Old Republic will for all intents and purposes go into maintenance mode .

cmdr_cotic
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cmdr_cotic

The Star Citizen lawsuit is going to be the big story of 2018 . I have my doubts somehow it will be settled out of court . I have read elsewhere the legal firm that Crytek have employed is the same one the successfully sued Oculus Rift for 500 million , does anyone know if this is accurate ? because if it is I think they will pursue and win a payout from CIG in the 10’s of millions .

Yep, Skadden handled the Zenimax lawsuit.

The Grim Squeeker
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The Grim Squeeker

This! “Bonus: Nothing will even come remotely close to having as feature-rich a virtual world as SWG, and Bree and I will lament that fact no less than 142 times.”

Minimalistway
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Minimalistway

New in 2018, Mo Massively lockboxes, a real box with “Mo the dancer” sticker on it … guys, if you did that, i will buy it from you :-)

Classic WoW announcement in Blizzcon 2018 but the release will be the year after.

That’s all i care about, one thing i wish to happen but i know it won’t: Ultima Online 2.0 .. the same game but with updated graphics and interface to look like a game from 2017

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Rhime

”QA is currently testing Star Citizen Alpha 3.0.0-694913. Should this testing go well we will deploy this build to the PTU Environment later tonight!
Also… we will also be opening tonight’s build to all backers should this pass QA. This will be a very late publish (at least three hours from the time of this update) so we will keep you apprised.”-from SC’s Spectrum

Pretty much puts “Star Citizen will eventually get alpha 3.0 out the door in March.” to bed I think…These prediction pieces are bullshit and provide nothing if not comedic relief.

cmdr_cotic
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cmdr_cotic

Pretty much puts “Star Citizen will eventually get alpha 3.0 out the door in March.” to bed I think…These prediction pieces are bullshit and provide nothing if not comedic relief.

Not at all. LIke you said it’s only going to the PTU, it’s not released to Live yet and the current build is still an awful, buggy, janky mess that is missing a shit tonne of content compared to what it was meant to provide. Perhaps by March it’ll have that content and be on the Live servers, perhaps not.

deekay_plus
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deekay_plus

it’s been my predicition that 3.0 will be pushed live by the end of this week ahead of the xmas sale.

even if they simply open PTU to all backers it’s not much difference really aside from the usual eye rolling alpha/bta/etc designation.

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mistressbrazen

Um…let me mention the little people: Wild West Online will not launch in 2018; someone will “officially” announce that Kickstarter game TUG died in development after they discovered rebuilding an engine after two years of development wasn’t a good idea. I believe Ship of Heroes will be close to a closed beta by next December. I think Dual Universe will have a build in early access.

Now, on to the bigger stuff: I say Star Citizen will launch something… not sure what, but something. Oleg will love it, Dekay will say it’s OK and then the rest of the fans will be evenly split, some in adoration, the other half marching with pitch forks. Curt Shilling will appear from out of nowhere and say if he had been allowed to do what CIG is doing, Rhode Island would have gotten a return on its money and he would be solvent. Lock boxes continue to be an industry wide problem but someone (looking at you Trion) will do something so utterly offensive (like get a minor to buy something for several hundred with his parent’s credit card and refuse to refund) that the Feds or a few states will force regulation on the industry.

I will keep my predictions for Funcom in a sealed envelop with my signature and the date written across the seal. But you all know what it is anyway.

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Maggie May

MJ –

10) Mo’s secret relationship finally comes to light.

Please don’t leave us hanging like this !

Other than that my predictions for 2918 ?

“The dead rising from the grave. Human sacrifice , dogs and cats living together … Mass Hysteria … Enough, I get the point! And what if you’re wrong?”

Think positive …

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Utakata

The new World of Warcraft expansion will likely soar like an eagle when first released…then land with a flop. (Kinda what happened with Warlords and Cata, so I am seeing a three’peat here. :( )

Lyn Gunners will be introduced to Blade & Soul… >.>

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Armsbend

My takeaway from MOP’s predictions.

“Somewhere in the distance, a wolf howls.” This will be the year 2018 in a nutshell.

My predictions? I said I woul…WELL OKAY.

Scam Citizen is going to point more true north towards a shutdown. Sea of Thieves will be a modest success. Camelot will release a beta people can play (because Mark assured us so today). World of Warcrfat is going to surprise everyone with a balanced PVP system for MMOs that blows our socks off – it will be a streaming hit – it will make many pve’ers angry because…that’s what they do. Law makers will continue to posture about lockboxes while actually doing nothing – but developers will begin to direct more money into their already sleazy pockets. Good companies, like Apple, will tackle the lockbox problem anyway and force scum developers to do the right thing, kicking and screaming along the way.

The biggest prediction of 2018? Net Neutrality is going to be the biggest story affecting the entire US internet, possibly internationally, of the entire year. It will make gaming news seem more frivolous than it already is. People who normally disagree with each other over triviality will unite under this great threat.

deekay_plus
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deekay_plus

sea of theives has potential to be the killer app the windows store needs for a larger base of windows users to actually use it instead of instantly remove it from their task bars.

however i predict alot of reddit/social media/youtuber/twitch influencer qq after their paid promotional contracts are over for various foreseeable reasons that one can see a mile coming away but ultimately are just more controversy for clicks bullshit we’ve been innundated the past some odd years.

anyways i think if they do their marketting and open up the NDA in the next month or two it’ll sell pretty damn well despite naysayers acting like windows 10 isn’t heavily and widely adopted (and also pretending like dx12 capable hardware doesn’t span back 8 years for nvidia and 3 or 4 for amd),

as well it will usher in even more demand for cross platform play, and will possibly get sony seeing the positives towards that end and possible cross play deals with ms for xbox/pc/ps4 crossplay in select games.

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Schmidt.Capela

I’m not sure how representative it is, but I saw a survey saying that, in the US, 4 out of 5 republicans or republican-leaning voters defend Net Neutrality, and that number is higher for democrats.

Makes me wonder how much the big ISPs (which are basically the only industry group against net neutrality) are paying congressmen to let Net Neutrality end…

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Armsbend

If you read some of the alt-right websites it’s easy to know why. The GOP leads a very uneducated constituency (as does the left) who are easily lead – to the extreme. You tell them what to think – they think that.

They were lead to believe that NN is about balance in news stories – the right represented as evenly as the left. That’s what they think it is – which of course it isn’t at all.

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Danny Smith

I think TESO and FFXIV chug along as the new defacto fantasy mmo’s with the most stable userbase. WoW will continue its decline but at this point nobody will really care unless they royally screw up with something worse than garrisons. Due to changes at Disney and the Tolkein estate Swtor and Lotro start to get cutbacks and team downsizing to keep them going rather than talk of shuttering any time soon and Bungie tries something desperate to Salvage the rapidly dying off Destiny 2 but it tanks and the IP dies and takes its 10 year plan with it.

and 50-50 wild card: Being technically a loot based game with thousands of hours of potential gameplay and at least two years of free dlc Monster Hunter world captures the pc and console looter craze crowd and explodes in the west in a big way and becomes a hit OR it is popular for a month and returns to its niche, doesnt sell enough and MH5 gets announced for Nintendo Switch. I honestly think it could go either way.

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Robert Mann

The AAA industry will continue to status quo, and do very little. The popular games there will be okay, others will suffer. Asian games will continue to whale-hunt and suffer for it in terms of player numbers here in the west, with a few exceptions.

Meanwhile, several new smaller studios will announce new projects, with ideas that shake things up a little. Around 2021-2023 we will actually see those games coming out, and the genre might just get the real spark it needs…

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cruzader

No thoughts on LotRO?

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Vincent Clark

SSG needs to turn a corner in 2018, they need to hire more staff (specifically testers and QA) and they need to get rid of loot-boxes. Failing that, I don’t think we will have a LotRO in active development come 2019.

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Utakata

A player will find The One Ring and rule them all? o.O

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Dividion

Well, since the One Ring extends your lifespan, that one player might live long enough to see the launch of Star Citizen, assuming AI comes far enough to replace the devs when they retire.

Personally, I just hope we get that northern mirkwood stuff they talked about. Fighting Shelob would be cool, but I’m not sure I’d ever find a group to do that with.

boredinBC
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boredinBC

” We will get a trickle of info about New World, but it’ll become clearer that it won’t be a sandbox MMORPG and will look a lot more like PUBG than originally planned.”

A haunting prediction.

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Zora

Me too, me too… can I plaaaaay?!

Ahem… /clearsthroat

1) World of warcraft will launch right after blizzcon to a lukewarm reception. Unable to frontload the amount of content of the previous expansion off the bat and with a weak theme, it’ll be left to pick up along future patches. We will hear precious little about classic realms. Jeff kaplan will still spend the year in the penalty pit while the other cool kids toy with the company’s new projects and blank cheques, blizzard-style.

2) Wildstar will defy death some more by tricking NCsoft into thinking they got shut down already the previous year. NCsoft will fall for it and blame any failing on Guild Wars 2.

3) Funcom will chew more than it can swallow once more and will have to downsize its portfolio a little. Secret world and conan exile will be relaunched in a new merged shared game where the great secret is that everyone is naked under their clothes.

4) By june, mr. Roberts will assume the identity of Francisco Roberto Maldonado and expatriate to Dubai. Unfortunately, the prince-regent there is secretly one of SC biggest backers and precipitation from atop the highest skyscraper is still a favoured past time among the royal family…

5) ESO will receive more updates and become the only source of elderscroll-ness for the addicted. Without a new chapter past skyrim to enjoy, they will all flock to the MMORPG and fatten its already notable player base.

6) One of the three superhero themed MMO in the works will catalyze the attention because we all are really desperate like that.

7) SWTOR will still be around without a semblance of an update aside from new items in the cartel market and despite that we will still be playing it because it’s Star Wars and it’s still less expensive than medicinal weed.

8) Also, Larry will keep seeing liutenant Aric Jorgan naked during every stream, and there will be Village People costumes sold inside lootcrates to further his romantic delusion.

9) Disney will buy Amazon, Netflix, Ubisoft, Bethesda, Actiblizzard and massivelyOP but -not- EA because reasons. From there on, the only news we will be allowed to comment onto will be those approved by the party of the black rat.

10) Following that, the weekly ration of lootboxes for every citizen will be raised to 20 grams

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Armsbend

laughed at #4 :)

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matt gourley

1.Archeage will merge all servers to one huge one, and a feeder fresh start server every year. 2.Ultima online will go f2p but many new gamers wont give this gem a try. 3.Black desert will continue to pick up steam (literally and figerally) GREAT GAME!! 4. Camelot unchained will launch before crowfall and will end up the better game. 5.Trion does at least 17 cash shop things this year that upsets its players. 6. Star Citizen becomes a joke and all the people 4 years ago telling me its a scam will say “I told you so” 7. Eve will continue to be top 3 MMO and will try to develop something to help new players catch up with the old.

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T.S

Diablo MMO announced at Blizzcon

Celestia
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Celestia

This is my Christmas Wish.

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ensignedwards

I couldn’t find my predictions from last year. Maybe I didn’t make any? Well, time for another round.

ESO will get a new expansion, and I’ll continue to roll my eyes at their refusal to call them “expansions.” Since they seem to like milking nostalgia, I’ll say it will be set in Skyrim, but my hope is for Elsweyr or Summerset. Either of those would get me back in ESO for sure.

FFXIV will also get another expansion, and I still won’t care.

WildStar will sunset.

Just Survive will suffer Landmark’s fate. It will launch, and it will actually be pretty good, but by then it’s languished in early access for so long that no one notices or cares.

TSW’s servers will close for good (really hope I’m wrong about this). Legends’ “season two” will be much delayed and meet with lukewarm reception, followed by another major content drought. It becomes increasingly clear the reboot did no good at all.

Star Citizen will not launch. In fact, I’d be surprised if any major crowdfunded MMO launches. If any does, it will be Camelot Unchained. If.

SWTOR will pull out of its funk and launch another big expansion. It will be slightly closer to Shadow of Revan in structure than the Knights duology (new open world zones, more group content, less emphasis on “chapters”).

WoW will have another lengthy content drought, with Battle for Azeroth launching very late in the year. It meets with lukewarm reception at best from the community, but because Blizzard no longer releases hard numbers, we’ll not have a clear picture of how economically successful it was. Classic servers will not launch in 2018, and maybe not in 2019 either.

A:IR will launch and be universally hailed as, “It’s okay I guess.”

None of the sound and fury over lockboxes will lead to any major changes.

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matt gourley

very good. A+

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Darthbawl

Oh Andrew and your starry eyed hopes for Star Citizen to come out in 2018. :P

Andrew Ross
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Andrew Ross

Hey, someone on the team had to be positive. When Squadron 42 comes out in a barely playable state, at least Bree can say one of us had faith.

…even if I didn’t back it and am feeling like the monetization is making Trion’s price points look fair.

wpDiscuz